2001-2024年伊洛河流域径流演变及降水响应分析OA

Using the basin upstream of Heishiguan Station in the Yiluo River Basin as the study area,this study investigated runoff evolution,precipitation response,and the applicability of monthly runoff simulation based on multi-source meteorological,runoff,and land-surface data from 2001 to 2024,combined with trend tests,anomaly analysis,lag correlation,and the WACM model.The aim is to clarify recent wet-dry runoff evolution,lagged precipitation response,and the ability of WACM to support monthly runoff assessment.Results indicate that:Both basin-average annual precipitation and annual mean discharge showed non-significant upward trends;The multi-year mean annual discharge at Heishiguan Station was 63.86 m3/s,and no significant abrupt change was detected.The runoff exhibited distinct staged characteristics:Persistent dry conditions occurred during 2013-2020,while the extremely wet year of 2021 rapidly replenished the cumulative deficit and in-creased the sensitivity of trend identification to extreme years.Annual precipitation was significantly positively correlated with annual runoff depth.Monthly runoff responded mainly within the same month or with a one-month lag,with the strongest same-month response in the flood season and the strongest one-month-lag response in the non-flood season.The NSE,R2,and PBIAS values of the WACM model were 0.91,0.92,and-2.91%in the calibration period and 0.73,0.75,and 5.25%in the validation period,respectively,showing that the model can effectively reproduce monthly wet-dry transitions and flood-season runoff concentration.