黄河流域农业土地利用转型驱动生态安全与粮食安全协同演进OA

To construct a theoretical analytical framework for driving the synergistic evolution of ecological security and food security through agricultural land use transition,this study systematically identifies the transition characteristics of agricultural land use in the Yellow River Basin and their impact mechanisms on the synergistic evolution of ecological security and food security.By integrating a three-tier coupled di-agnostic framework of"macro-stage identification-meso-nonlinear diagnosis-micro-behavior adoption,"the study calculates the indices of ag-ricultural land use transition,ecological security,food security,and their synergy.Using the Pettitt test,Mann-Kendall trend test,GAM model,and Logit model,it analyzes the long-term changes in these indices in the Yellow River Basin from 1949 to 2024.The findings are as follows:a)Agricultural land use transition and the synergistic evolution of ecological security and food security in the Yellow River Basin ex-hibit significant stage-transition characteristics,with 1978,1999,and 2018 as key mutation nodes;The synergy index increased from 0.252 in 1978 to 0.617 in 2024,indicating a shift from long-term imbalance to synergistic improvement in the relationship between ecological secur-ity and food security.b)Agricultural land use transition has a significant nonlinear impact on the synergy index;A response threshold of 0.55 exists between water resource security levels and the synergy index;The smoothing function corresponding to the average cultivated land man-agement scale per household shows an inverted U-shaped curve,peaking in the 5-7 hm2 range.c)Participation in technical training,mem-bership in cooperatives,and access to green subsidies increase the probability of farmers adopting green land use behaviors by 15.7,11.4 and 9.3 percentage points,respectively,suggesting that institutional support and organized services are critical linkages between macro-level land use transition and micro-level behavioral responses.Future efforts should adhere to the principles of land allocation and development based on water availability,implement zoning regulations,and establish a tripartite micro-transmission mechanism integrating"technical services-or-ganizational support-policy incentives"to shift agricultural land use from a singular yield-oriented approach to one driven by the synergy of ecological security and food security.