基于XGBoost-SHAP方法的天山中段景观生态风险时空演变及驱动因素OA

Landscape ecological risk refers to the potential adverse effects on ecological processes due to changes in regional landscape structure.Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics and driving factors of landscape eco-logical risk is crucial for optimizing territorial spatial planning.Focusing on the middle section of the Tianshan Mountains,this study applied a landscape ecological risk assessment model to analyze the spatiotemporal evolu-tion of risk from 2005 to 2023.The extreme gradient boosting-Shapley additive explanations method was em-ployed to identify the driving factors and their interactions.The results revealed the following:(1)Temporally,landscape ecological risk in the study area remained generally stable between 2005 and 2023,with a slight de-crease in the ecological risk index.Although 66.12%of the area maintained consistent risk levels,33.88%experi-enced transitions between risk levels,indicating overall stability with localized sensitivity.(2)Spatially,land-scape ecological risk exhibited a polarized"low in the north,high in the south"pattern,roughly delineated by the main ridge of the Tianshan Mountains in a"人"-shaped configuration.High-risk areas were concentrated in the southern Taklimakan Desert,whereas low-risk areas were predominantly in the northern Ili River Valley.Land-scape composition significantly influenced this spatial differentiation.(3)In terms of driving factors,single-factor analysis indicated that natural geographical factors,particularly the normalized difference vegetation index(ND-VI)and temperature,primarily determined the spatial pattern of landscape ecological risk in the middle Tianshan Mountains.Interaction analysis showed that high-risk areas are collectively driven by the coupled effects of"low NDVI and relatively high temperature"and"low GDP and high population density".These multi-threshold non-linear feedback mechanisms warrant particular attention for ecological risk management in arid regions.