基于灾害系统理论的尾矿库溃坝致因与风险防控研究OA

Disaster systems theory was employed to reconstruct the dam failure cognitive framework,three core elements,i.e.,the disaster-incubating environment,the disaster-bearing entity and the disaster-inducing factors were integrated.By analyzing over 40 typical tailings dam failures globally within the past 60 years,key disaster-inducing factors including flood overtopping,seismic events,dam body instability and seepage failure were identified.The systemic nature of tailings dam failure was highlighted by multi-factor synergistic disaster induction and dynamic system coupling.Furthermore,disaster system theory for dimensional analysis was applied,a three-tier risk prevention system for tailings dam failure including safety monitoring,disaster warning and emergency response was constructed.The results show that spatiotemporal coverage through multi-source sensing is the core path for upgrading the monitoring system,intelligient diagnosis and real-time feedback are key breakthroughs for advancing the warning paradigm,and a multidimensional response emergency system coupled with closed-loop resilience optimization is the core guarantees for enhancing emergency response effectiveness.