基于多模型的雅鲁藏布江流域降雨侵蚀力时空特征OA
Spatiotemporal characteristics of rainfall erosivity in Yarlung Zangbo River Basin based on multiple models
[目的]雅鲁藏布江流域是典型的高寒生态脆弱区,其复杂的气候分异对降雨侵蚀力 R模型适用性提出更高要求.[方法]基于 25个气象站 1980-2020年逐日降雨量数据,应用 9种典型简易模型(A～I)计算R值.通过 Mann-Kendall 检验、Sen's斜率分析及层次聚类法,系统分析模型差异及其在各气候区站点的表现.[结果]1)各模型计算的多年平均 R值差异明显(101～1 677 MJ·mm/(hm2·h)),模型 B、C、E较模型 D、F、G计算数值偏大;模型 I在各气候区站点均无异常值.2)各模型 R 值年际变化方向一致,均在 2005年前后检测到极显著突变点(P<0.01);多数站点呈上升趋势,但不同模型估计的趋势幅度差异明显.3)模型聚为 3组:组1(A,B,C,E,F,G)、组 2(D)和组 3(H,I);各组对气候响应的敏感度排序为:组 3>组 1>组 2,该差异在半干旱和半湿润区尤为显著(P<0.01).[结论]不同模型在估算绝对值、变化幅度及局部趋势上存在显著差异,模型A、H和I在流域内有较好的应用潜力.
[Objective]The Yarlung Zangbo River Basin is a typical alpine ecologically fragile region,where complex climatic differentiation poses higher requirements for the selection of rainfall erosivity(R)models.Therefore,evaluating the applicability and differences among simplified R models is essential for accurately characterizing the spatiotemporal variation of rainfall erosivity and for supporting appropriate model selection in this region.[Methods]Daily rainfall data from 25 meteorological stations across the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin from 1980 to 2020 were used as input for nine typical simplified models(A-I)to calculate R values.Model differences and their performance at stations across climatic zones were evaluated using the Mann-Kendall test,Sen's slope estimator,and hierarchical clustering analysis.[Results]1)The multi-year average R values estimated by the nine models varied substantially,ranging from 101 to 1 677 MJ·mm/(hm2·h).Models B,C,and E generally produced higher estimates than models D,F,and G,while model I showed no outliers at stations across all climatic zones.2)All models exhibited consistent directions of interannual variations in R and detected highly significant abrupt change points around 2005(P<0.01).Most stations showed increasing trends,but the magnitudes of the estimated trends varied markedly among models.3)The models were clustered into three groups:Group 1(A,B,C,E,F,G),Group 2(D),and Group 3(H,I).The sensitivity to climate variability was ranked as Group 3(highest)>Group 1>Group 2(lowest),with particularly pronounced differences in semi-arid and semi-humid zones(P<0.01).[Conclusions]The findings demonstrate that simplified rainfall erosivity models differ significantly in estimating absolute values,variation amplitudes,and local trends of R.This study evaluates the model applicability and provides a scientific basis for selecting appropriate rainfall erosivity models for soil-erosion assessment in the cold,high-altitude and ecologically fragile areas of the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin.
但姝仪;张会兰;孙嘉宁;吕春汐;王天赫;黄灿
北京林业大学水土保持学院,100083,北京北京林业大学水土保持学院,100083,北京||北京林业大学 水土保持国家林业和草原局重点实验室,100083,北京北京林业大学水土保持学院,100083,北京北京林业大学水土保持学院,100083,北京北京林业大学水土保持学院,100083,北京北京林业大学水土保持学院,100083,北京
农业科技
降雨侵蚀力模型时空特征聚类分析雅鲁藏布江流域
rainfall erosivitymodelspatiotemporal characteristicscluster analysisYarlung Zangbo River Basin
《中国水土保持科学》 2026 (4)
22-34,13
国家自然科学基金面上项目"植被结构影响下的坡面流挟沙力动力机制研究"(52279056) National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)General Program"Research on the Dynamic Mechanism of Slope Flow Sand-Carrying Force under the Influence of Vegetation Structure"(52279056)
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