基于能值分析的浙江衢州畜禽养殖环境承载力估算OA

This study aimed to optimize the regional livestock and poultry breeding volume by using the emergy anal-ysis method,to synergistically achieve the integrated crop-livestock and sustainable development.Taking Quzhou,Zhejiang as the research area,the emergy analysis theory was used to evaluate the sustainable development level of Quzhou's crop-livestock production system from 2013 to 2022.Four scenarios were set according to policy orienta-tion,and the sustainability index was used as the threshold to simulate and analyze the appropriate livestock and poultry breeding volume in Quzhou.It was shown that the emergy input of Quzhou's crop-livestock production system showed a"downward-increasing"trend from2013 to2022,reaching2.5×1021 sej(1 sej is the solar energy equiva-lent of 1 J)in 2022.Among them,non-renewable industrial resources accounted for about half,and concentrated feed and electricity were its main sources.The sustainability index of Quzhou's crop-livestock production system showed an"increasing-downward"trend from2013 to2022,and it was1.6 in2022.Under the scenarios of N re-duction and efficiency improvement,concentrated feed replacement,energy structure optimization and comprehensive application,the environmental carrying capacity(in terms of pig equivalent)of Quzhou's livestock and poultry breed-ing was 2.281 million to 2.326 million heads,2.295 million to 2.384 million heads,2.303 million to 2.418 million heads and 2.346 million to 2.611 million heads,respectively.On the premise that the sustainability index of crop-livestock production system did not decline,with the promotion and application of efficient use of nitrogen fertilizer,concentrated feed replacement and energy structure optimization,the future breeding increment in Quzhou could reach 79 000 to 344 000 heads.It was recommended to promote the reduction and substitution technology of concen-trated feed such as soybean meal,accelerate the construction of a clean energy system dominated by photovoltaics,and help the green and low-carbon transformation of crop-livestock production system.