水稻产业空间集聚趋势分析及影响因素研究OACHSSCD

This study aims to analyze the spatial agglomeration changes and influencing factors of the rice industry in Sichuan province,with the objective of providing theoretical support for optimizing regional distribution,strengthening policy coordination,and constructing a"Tianfu Granary"at a higher level in the new era.Based on panel data from 135 districts and counties in Sichuan province spanning 2010-2022,methods including the location Gini coefficient,industrial concentration ratio,location quotient,and Moran's index were employed to examine the dynamic evolution of Sichuan's rice industry spatial distribution.A geodetector model was further applied to quantify both single-factor effects and interaction mechanisms influencing the spatial agglomeration of the rice industry.The Results were indicated as follows.From 2010 to 2022,the overall spatial agglomeration of Sichuan's rice industry remained relatively stable,with the location Gini coefficient fluctuating between 0.21 and 0.24.The industrial concentration ratio of the top 30 districts and counties rose from 44.7％ to 46.5％,indicating a gradual trend toward concentration in advantageous areas.The global Moran's index ranged from 0.109 to 0.127,reflecting significant positive spatial autocorrelation.The location quotient exhibited a"decline-then-rise"fluctuation pattern(1.00～1.31),with comparative advantages continuously strengthening in recent years.Geodetector results revealed that natural endowment factors,particularly rice cultivation area and effective irrigation area,had the strongest explanatory power.Specifically,the northwestern Sichuan rice zone was characterized as natural endowment-dominated,while the southeastern Sichuan rice zone was socioeconomic-driven.In summary,to promote the sustainable development of Sichuan's rice industry,region-specific differentiated development strategies should be pursued,industrial agglomeration toward advantageous areas should be supported,policy coordination and technology-driven empowerment should be strengthened,and strict farmland protection and land-use controls should be enforced.