西蓝花现蕾期模拟模型的构建与验证OA

The floral initiation stage of broccoli significantly impacts yield,quality formation,cropping sequence and sowing date management.To accurately predict the time required from transplanting to floral initiation for different broccoli varieties,this study constructed a temperature-and photoperiod-based simulation model of the broccoli floral initiation stage using multi-year meteorological data from two experimental sites in Jiaojiang and Sanmen,Zhejiang Province,together with observational data on the transplanting and floral initiation dates of different varieties.Key parameters and their interactions were identified through Sobol sensitivity analysis,and the potential heat unit re-quired from transplanting to floral initiation(Gv),temperature sensitivity(ST),optimum temperature(To)and photoperiod sensitivity(G)were optimized using a grid search and alternating iteration strategy.Data from the Jiao-jiang site were used for parameter calibration,and data from the Sanmen site were used for model validation.The re-sults showed significant differences among varieties in sensitivity to temperature and photoperiod.The average root mean square error of the model was 2.78 d in calibration and 1.33 d in validation,indicating that the model could simulate the floral initiation stage of broccoli with acceptable accuracy and provide a theoretical basis for new variety breeding,production management optimization and regional adaptability assessment.