广东水稻气候资源变化及适应对策研究OACHSSCD

Against the backdrop of global climate change,this research aims to clarify the spatio-temporal evolution patterns of climatic resources for rice in Guangdong province and assess their comprehensive impacts on rice production,so as to provide a scientific basis for formulating regional adaptive agronomic measures and response strategies.Using annual meteorological data from 86 stations in Guangdong province and daily data from four representative stations(Guangzhou,Zhanjiang,Shaoguan,Shantou)from 1955 to 2024,this study employed methods such as trend analysis,abrupt change detection,frequency statistics,and spatial comparison to analyze the characteristics of climatic resources during the rice growing season in Guangdong province and assess their potential impacts on rice production.The results were indicated as follows.(1)Over the past 70 years,Guangdong's climate exhibited the overall characteristics of"significant warming,increased precipitation extremes,and a continuous decline in sunshine duration."The annual average temperature rose at a rate of 0.24℃ per decade,and a climatic state transition centered on temperature rise occurred between 1997 and 1998;interannual precipitation fluctuations intensified,with a significant increase in the number of days with heavy rainfall and high temperatures;while sunshine duration decreased,there were marked regional differences.(2)Changes in climatic resources during the rice growing season exhibited significant regional differences:in the Pearl River Delta,the growing season showed no significant lengthening significantly(with an extension of only 2 days in Guangzhou),while accumulated temperature and the number of high-temperature days increased significantly;precipitation rose substantially,the number of days with heavy rainfall increased significantly,and sunshine hours decreased significantly,making it the region most severely affected by the negative impacts of climate change.In Northern Guangdong,the length of the growing season remained relatively stable,with no significant trend toward increased accumulated temperature;however,high temperatures were pronounced.Precipitation increased significantly—previously dominated by frontal rains during the flood season—and the number of days with heavy rainfall rose,while sunshine hours decreased significantly.And this region faced concurrent risks of overcast,rainy conditions with insufficient sunshine and heat damage from high temperatures.In Western Guangdong,the growing season lengthened significantly(13 days in Zhanjiang),with significant increase in accumulated temperature and the number of high-temperature days.Precipitation and the number of days with heavy rainfall were trending upward,while the decrease in sunshine hours was not significant;the climate was becoming"warmer and wetter".In Eastern Guangdong,the growing season lengthened substantially(25 days in Shantou),with a dramatic increase in heat accumulation(+82.1 ℃·d/10a).Neither precipitation nor sunshine hours showed a significant trend,and the number of days with heavy rainfall decreased slightly.In summary,climate risks and opportunities for rice production in Guangdong vary greatly across different regions;therefore,region-specific measures should be implemented to establish a comprehensive adaptation system integrating"varieties,technologies,facilities,and policies."The Pearl River Delta and Northern Guangdong are relatively vulnerable;priority should be given to promoting varieties tolerant to high temperatures,waterlogging,and low light,while strengthening drainage and field microclimate regulation.Western Guangdong receives the lowest proportion of precipitation during the pre-flood season;efforts should focus on mitigating the risks of spring drought,high temperatures,and heavy rainfall.Eastern Guangdong should be designated as a priority area for"yield and efficiency enhancement,"fully leveraging the extended growing season and stable light and water resources to optimize variety selection and boost production capacity.At the same time,while strengthening the promotion and application of existing technologies,emphasis should be placed on technological innovation and infrastructure investment,and policy support mechanisms should be improved.