2026年春季中国主要天气气候事件特征OA
Characteristics of the major weather and climate events in China during the spring of 2026
2026 年春季,中国气候总体呈现暖湿特征.平均气温较常年同期偏高 1.1℃,为历史同期第四高,61 站日最高气温达到或超过春季极大值;全国降水量较常年同期偏多15.8%,为1961年以来历史同期第五多,也是近10 a 最多.季内降水呈阶段性变化,表现为3-4 月降水偏多,5 月降水由少转多,10 次区域暴雨过程袭击我国,接近常年同期,且均为南方型.其中 5 月 13-21 日发生了今年以来同时也是历史5 月最强暴雨过程,具有"持续时间长、影响范围广、极端性强"等特征,其最大影响面积和持续时间均为5 月历史之最;5 月 25-29 日首轮高温过程影响我国,较常年偏早二十余日;多地气象干旱阶段性发展,总体不重;冷空气过程较常年偏少,强度总体偏弱,但 5月"收尾"寒潮影响我国北方地区;强对流天气过程首次出现时间偏晚但春季总频次高,5 月中下旬极端强降水呈现点强面强的特征,多地日降水量突破极值,沙尘过程偏少,4 月 17-20 日的沙尘暴过程强度强、范围广.初步分析表明,5 月已正式进入厄尔尼诺(El Niño)状态,且赤道中东太平洋Niño 3.4区海温指数持续升高,同时西太平洋副热带高压提前北抬,其面积指数和强度指数均为1979 年以来同期最高,我国北方处于副高北缘,异常强烈的垂直上升运动导致 5 月中旬起北方降水偏多,南北两条雨带并存,强对流及降水极端性突出.
In the spring of 2026,China experienced a pronounced warm and humid climatic regime.The national mean temperature was 1.1℃higher than normal,ranking as the fourth highest for the same period since 1961.Daily maximum temperatures at 61 meteorological stations reached or exceeded their historical spring maxima.The mean precipitation amount was 15.8%above normal,ranking as the fifth highest for the same period since 1961 and the highest record over the past decade.The intraseasonal evolution of precipitation exhibited marked phase transitions.Positive rainfall anomalies prevailed during March and April,followed by a notable shift from deficits to surpluses in May.A total of ten regional heavy-rainfall events affected China,close to the normal,and all of them occurred over southern China.The heavy-rainfall event during 13-21 May was the strongest regional rainstorm event of the year and also the strongest May rainstorm event on record.This event was characterized by exceptional duration,extensive spatial coverage,and extraordinary extremity,with both its maximum affected area and total duration ranking first among all May events since 1961.The first high-temperature event occurred in China from 25 to 29 May,more than 20 days earlier than climatology,and meteorological drought developed intermittently in several regions.Cold air activity was less frequent than normal and generally weaker,although a late-season cold wave in May affected northern China.Severe convective weather occurred later than usual but was frequently during spring.The extreme heavy precipitation in mid-to-late May exhibited characteristic of strong intensity both locally and over a large area,with daily precipitation amounts exceeding historical records at multiple locations.The frequency of dust weather process was less than that of the same period in normal years,with the sandstorm event during 17-20 April exhibited strong intensity and a wide affected area.Preliminary analysis suggests that El Niño conditions emerged in May,as sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region of the equatorial central-eastern Pacific continued to rise.Meanwhile,the western Pacific subtropical high shifted northward earlier than climatology,with both its area and intensity indices reaching their highest values for the corresponding period since 1979.In addition,northern China was located along the northern periphery of the western Pacific subtropical high,where anomalously strong upward motion contributed to increased precipitation.The concurrent northern and southern rainbelts from mid-May onward,further amplifying the extremity of precipitation and severe convective events.
王雅琦;张颖娴;洪海旭;冯爱青;陈逸骁
国家气候中心,北京 100081国家气候中心,北京 100081国家气候中心,北京 100081||中国气象局气候预测研究重点开放实验室,北京 100081国家气候中心,北京 100081国家气候中心,北京 100081
天文与地球科学
气候特征暴雨春季西太平洋副热带高压El Niño
climate characteristicsheavy-rainfall eventsspringwestern Pacific subtropical highEl Niño
《气象科学》 2026 (4)
403-412,10
广东省基础与应用基础研究重大项目(2020B0301030004)中国气象局气候预测研究重点开放实验室青年开放课题(26LCPS002)中国气象局复盘总结专项(FPZJ2026-164)
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