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江苏新型城镇大风灾害危险性精细化评估OA

Refined hazard assessments of strong wind disasters at the new urbanizational county scale in Jiangsu Province

中文摘要英文摘要

江苏省新型城镇的快速发展对区域大风灾害风险防控提出了新的需求.本文以建湖县为实证区,利用气象观测数据、大风历史个例及地理信息数据,构建了一种面向新型城镇的大风灾害危险性精细化评估方法.结果表明:在灾害强度和频次的基础上引入灾害等级,可放大镇级危险性指数差异;根据系统性大风和局地性大风灾害特征构建的危险性定量评估模型,可划定镇级危险性等级边界;结合局地环境对极大风速的可能影响,并借助水域和数字地面模型量化的关键指标,实现危险性指数向村级的扩展.精细化评估结果表明,建湖县南界北向6 个村遭受大风影响的危险性等级最高,而定量化评估则揭示了东部上冈镇易受龙卷大风和寒潮大风的影响,危险性等级高.

The rapid urbanization of new-type urban areas in Jiangsu Province has introduced new challenges for the risk prevention and control of regional strong wind hazards.Taking Jianhu County as the study area,this study integrated meteorological records,historical strong wind documentation,and geographic information system data to develop a refined hazard assessment framework tailored for these emerging urban environments.The findings demonstrate that traditional intensity and frequency metrics with explicit disaster-severity levels markedly amplified the discrimination of town-level hazard indices.The established quantitative hazard assessment models,designed to reflect the systematic and localized nature of strong wind disasters,reliably delineate hazard boundaries for every town.By further incorporating site-specific environmental controls on extreme wind speeds-quantified through water-body distributions and digital surface models,the method successfully downscales hazard indices to individual villages.The refined assessments reveal that six villages located along the northern arc of Jianhu's southern boundary exhibit the highest hazard levels in relation to typhoon-induced strong winds.Quantitative analyses additionally highlight Shanggang Town in the eastern region stands out for its pronounced vulnerability to both tornado and cold wave gusts.

苗茜;项瑛;张雪蓉;杨杰;丁晔;段宏

江苏省气候中心,南京 210041江苏省气候中心,南京 210041江苏省气候中心,南京 210041江苏省气候中心,南京 210041盐城市气象局,江苏 盐城 224051中国石油天然气第一建设有限公司,河南 关林 471023

天文与地球科学

新型城镇大风灾害危险性评估精细化评估

new-type urbanstrong wind disasterhazard assessmentrefined assessment

《气象科学》 2026 (4)

385-393,9

中国气象局气候变化专项(QBZ202404)江苏省气象局面上项目(KM202102)

10.12306/2025jms.0037

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