气候变化背景下川西绿绒蒿潜在适生区预测OA

[Objective]This study predicted the potential suitable distribution pattern of Meconopsis henrici,providing a scientific basis for germplasm resource conservation and rational development and utilization of this species.[Method]Based on 51 occurrence records of M.henrici and 21 environmental variables,the MaxEnt model was used to simulate the potential suitable habitat distribution patterns un-der current and future climate periods.[Result]①The MaxEnt model achieved high predictive accuracy(AUC=0.970).Precipitation of the coldest quarter(Bio19)and temperature seasonality(Bio4)were the key factors affecting the distribution of M.henrici.②Under current climatic conditions,the highly suit-able habitats for M.henrici were concentrated in western Sichuan,eastern Xizang and southern Gansu,with an area of approximately 17.44×10⁴ km²,accounting for 1.82%of China's total land area.③Under future climate-change scenarios,the total suitable habitat area for M.henrici will keep expanding,reach-ing 171.25×10⁴ km² during 2081-2100,an increase of 47.3%compared with the present.The highly suitable habitats will peak in 2061-2080 and then contract slightly,showing an overall northwestward expansion.④The distribution centroid of M.henrici will shift persistently northward,with a cumulative latitudinal increment of approximately 0.98°,accompanied by east-west oscillation.[Conclusion]In the future,the suitable habitat range of M.henrici will continuously expand and shift northward,with the high suitable area initially increasing and then slowing down.It is recommended that the current core suit-able habitats in western Sichuan and eastern Xizang should be prioritized as germplasm conservation bases.Ecological monitoring and introduction potential of newly-emerging suitable habitats such as east-ern Qinghai should be emphasized to cope with the dynamic distribution changes of this species under cli-mate change.