某流域梯级水电枢纽群连溃风险分析及溃坝过程模拟OA

Under extreme loading conditions,the failure of a weak link within a cascade hydropower system can readily trigger basin-scale catastrophic disasters.Taking a cascade hydropower system MSKN-SPL-AETS in a representative river basin as a case study,and considering the impacts of flood and seismic hazards on the operational risk of the system,the failure pathways of the cascade system are identified,and a numerical simulation framework for cascading dam-break processes is established.The results indicate that:(a)after the flood regulation by MSKN Hydropower Station,the basin-wide flood risk is significantly reduced,ensuring that the cascade system remains unaffected by extreme flood events exceeding design standards;and(b)under seismic loading beyond the design basis,cascading dam failure initiated at MSKN is highly likely to induce full-section overflow and overtopping failure at the downstream SPL Hydropower Station,and the flood propagation process exhibits a pronounced cascading amplification effect,but timely emergency regulation of the AETS Hydraulic Project can effectively mitigate and control this chain-type risk.The proposed risk analysis and simulation methodology for cascading failures of hydropower systems can provide technical support for the formulation of emergency response plans and basin-scale risk management of cascade hydropower projects.