刺激—反应模型视角下美以—伊朗情报博弈分析及启示OACHSSCD

[Purpose]The"Epic Fury"joint military operations conducted by the United States and Israel against Iran have precipitated a complex,multi-layered intelligence contest.A rigorous analysis of the evolutionary dynamics underlying the U.S.-Israel-Iran intelli-gence rivalry-particularly the strategic asymmetries between technologically advanced and resource-constrained actors-offers valuable in-sights for enhancing the pertinence and operational effectiveness of national intelligence system development and capacity-building initia-tives.[Method]Grounded in the stimulus-response theoretical framework,this study employs the"Epic Fury"operations as an empirical case to conduct a systematic examination of the origins and typologies of intelligence stimuli,the rationale and selection criteria governing responsive countermeasures,and the iterative,feedback-driven mechanism that characterizes the intelligence interaction cycle.Based on this analysis,the study distills the defining structural and behavioral features of the contest.[Result/Conclusion]During the"Epic Fury"operations,the United States and Israel deployed three interrelated forms of intelligence-driven pressure:infiltration-oriented intelligence operations,strike-enabling intelligence support,and cognitive-domain interventions.In response,Iran implemented a calibrated tripartite counterstrategy comprising anti-infiltration safeguards,proportionate retaliatory measures,and proactive cognitive resilience initiatives-thereby mitigating adversarial advantages and sustaining operational continuity.The intelligence contest exhibits pronounced structural a-symmetry.The U.S.-Israeli alliance leverages systemic superiority in intelligence.Nevertheless,Iran has consistently demonstrated a-daptive strategic resilience through asymmetric approaches-suggesting that protracted,low-intensity confrontation remains the most likely trajectory.In light of these findings,the U.S.-Israel-Iran intelligence rivalry bears important implications for institutionalizing a defensive intelligence strategy;aligning intelligence modernization with broader national security and geopolitical strategy;deepening international intelligence cooperation;and strengthening the development of the national intelligence system.