中国预算管理制度改革:"十四五"回顾与"十五五"展望OACHSSCD

This paper reviews China's budget management system reform in the 14th Five-Year Plan(FYP)period and sets out priorities for the 15th FYP period.In the 14th FYP period,reform did not merely add new rules;it pushed the modern budget management system from framework building to routine operation.Law-based budgeting and the hard rule of"budget before spending"were strengthened through final accounts,budget indicator accounting,budget review,and fiscal supervision.Budget coverage became more complete.Medium-term fiscal planning and cross-year budget balance improved the stability and foresight of annual budgets.Transfer payment re-form strengthened basic public services and grassroots fiscal capacity.Budget performance management moved from single project appraisal to a full-process mechanism.Integrated budget management platforms embedded rules in online workflows,kept traceable records,and strengthened information disclosure,debt control,and penetrative supervision.Budget operation thus became more standard,open,disciplined,and risk-aware. It argues that the 15th FYP period will place budget management system reform under tighter constraints.Tight fiscal balance may persist.Grassroots governments will face greater pressure to safeguard basic livelihoods,wage payments,and routine operations.External uncertainty and domestic structural change make revenue fore-casts,spending priorities,and policy timing harder to coordinate.Reform should therefore focus on system integra-tion and effective operation.First,fiscal resources should be better coordinated by making medium-term fiscal plan-ning more binding.Second,budget performance management should become more effective by clarifying responsi-bilities,moving performance review forward,using evaluation results in budget arrangements,and managing pro-jects over their life cycle.Third,integrated budget management should be deepened through unified data stand-ards,master data governance,built-in control rules,and joint supervision based on the same data source.Fourth,expenditure standards and budget review should be tied to project entry,zero-based budgeting,audit opinions,and performance results.Fifth,government debt budget management should cover borrowing,use,repayment,disclo-sure,and accountability. These measures should not be treated as separate tasks but form an integrated chain running through policy de-sign,budget arrangement,fund use,supervision,and evaluation.Such a chain can help the budget management system send clear signals,guide departments to plan earlier,reduce inefficient and ineffective spending,and keep fiscal risks visible and controllable before they accumulate and spread.Overall,budget management in the 15th FYP period should shift from"having a framework"to"achieving effective operation",aiming to improve fiscal re-source allocation and the use of public funds through clear rules,reliable data,and enforceable responsibilities.