基于致灾性与资源性的台风综合影响评估方法研究OA

Typhoons are a major source of both severe meteorological disasters and crucial freshwater replenishment in China.Current assessments,however,predominantly focus on disaster losses and overlook the resource benefits of precipitation.This study proposes a Tropical Cyclone Comprehensive Impact Evaluation and Assessment(TC-CIEA)to evaluate the dual disaster-resource attributes of typhoons using the Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI)and daily maximum wind speed data.By analyzing antecedent moisture conditions and SPI variations,alongside a wind speed disaster-trigger threshold of 17.2 m/s,the model effectively distinguishes between disaster risks and water replenishment benefits.A Typhoon Comprehensive Impact Index(TCII)and a relative net impact index ρ are further constructed,classifying typhoon impacts into five objective categories based on the physical ratio between the resource and disaster terms.The classification stability is validated using 521 typhoon samples from 1981 to 2023.Case studies indicate that the model accurately captures the spatial disparity of Typhoon Doksuri,which caused severe disasters in eastern China but relieved drought in western North China and quantifies the replenishment benefits of Typhoon Talim's peripheral precipitation in South China without triggering the high-wind disaster threshold.Ultimately,this study transcends traditional hazard-only perspectives,offering a comprehensive framework to support targeted disaster prevention and scientific water resource management.