基于组网雨量计的中国气象局天气雷达拼图系统V3.0小时降水产品检验——以广西壮族自治区为例OA
Evaluation of the China Meteorological Administration Weather Radar Mosaic System V3.0 Hourly Precipitation Product Based on A Network of Rain Gauges:A Case Study of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region
准确监测和预报降水对于减灾防灾、水资源规划以及应对全球变化具有重要意义.最新升级的中国气象局天气雷达拼图系统V3.0在降水业务监测中发挥着重要作用,但尚缺乏针对降水产品的精细化检验.以广西壮族自治区为例,利用国家标准气象站的雨量计观测数据,对2023年1月1日—12月31日的天气雷达拼图系统V3.0 逐小时降水产品进行评估,为产品的优化升级提供科学依据,结果表明:(1)基于逐小时定量降水估测产品的年降水量分布情况与雨量计观测结果一致,但空间局部存在系统性偏差,对北部湾沿岸地区年降水量高估约500 mm,同时低估了百色市周围地区的降水.(2)逐小时定量估测降水产品对不同等级的降水事件频次的估测与雨量计观测结果较为一致;在小雨级别中表现良好,在强降水事件中表现为低估.(3)降水产品的精度在空间上呈现出一定差异,在广西东北部的桂林及其周边地区、西部百色等地的误差较高,相对偏差接近60%,而在北部湾沿岸地区的模拟表现相对更好.
Accurate precipitation monitoring and forecasting are essential for disaster mitigation,water resource management,and addressing global climate challenges.The China Meteorological Administration's upgraded Weather Radar Mosaic System V3.0(CWRMS V3.0)plays a pivotal role in operational precipitation monitoring,yet comprehensive validation of its quantitative precipitation estimation(QPE)products remains limited.Focusing on the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region,this study evaluates the system's 1-hour QPE products from 1 January to 31 December,2023,using rain gauge observations from national meteorological stations.The results reveal three key findings:(1)The annual precipitation spatial distribution derived from QPE generally aligns with observations but exhibits distinct regional biases,including overestimation of approximately 500 mm in the coastal areas of the Beibu Gulf and an underestimation around Baise City.(2)The hourly QPE products demonstrate that the system has robust detection capabilities across various precipitation intensities,correlating well with the rain gauge records.However,while performance is satisfactory for light rains,the system exhibits a pronounced negative bias for heavy precipitation events.(3)Spatial disparities in accuracy are evident,with notably high errors(relative bias up to 60%)in northeastern Guilin and western Baise,contrasting with relatively lower errors observed in coastal regions.
魏佳奇;陈生;李浩然;吴晶;汪冬冬;李艳萍;韦春霞
中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院冰冻圈科学与冻土工程全国重点实验室,甘肃 兰州 730000||中国科学院大学,北京 100081中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院冰冻圈科学与冻土工程全国重点实验室,甘肃 兰州 730000||南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(珠海),广东 珠海 519000中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京 100081兰州中心气象台,甘肃 兰州 730020宁波市气象服务中心,浙江 宁波 315000广西气象信息中心,广西 南宁 530001广西气象科学研究所,广西 南宁 530001
天文与地球科学
天气雷达拼图降水估测定量评估广西壮族自治区
weather radar mosaicquantitative precipitation estimation(QPE)quantitative validationGuangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region
《热带气象学报》 2026 (4)
578-588,11
广西重点研发项目(AB22080104、AB22035016)甘肃省自然科学基金(24JRRA082)柳州市元宝山地形暴雨重点实验室重点项目(2024ybssysz2)中国科学院高层次人才计划(E2290702)共同资助
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