广州市极端降水分布特征及设计暴雨雨型分析OA
Distribution Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation and Design Rainfall Patterns in Guangzhou
利用广州市80个省级气象观测站2012-2021年降水资料及五个国家气象站近60 a的分钟级降水资料,本文分析了极端降水空间分布特征,采用芝加哥雨型法和同频率分析法构建短历时与长历时设计暴雨雨型.结果表明,(1)广州市1h最大降水呈"中部高、东北和西南低"的空间分布,最大值位于增城南部,24 h最大降水则呈东北高、西南低的空间分布,高值中心位于从化中部至增城交界,低值区在番禺至南沙,降雨空间差异显著.(2)短历时设计暴雨雨型显示,广州、花都站雨峰位置随历时变化显著,雨峰系数波动大,从化、增城站雨峰系数稳定,番禺站次之,峰值雨量以增城站最大,番禺、从化站次之,广州、花都站较小.(3)长历时设计暴雨雨型显示,最大1h累积降水速率从大到小依次为广州站>花都站>增城站>番禺站>从化站,到达峰值时刻累积雨量占比从大到小依次为番禺站>广州站>增城站>花都站>从化站.
Guangzhou has experienced frequent extreme rainfall events with increasing urban flood risks in recent decades.Based on the rainfall data from 80 provincial meteorological stations in Guangzhou during 2012-2021,and the minutes-level rainfall records from five national meteorological stations over the past 60 years,this study investigates the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of extreme precipitation.The Chicago rainfall pattern(storm hyetograph)method and equal frequency analysis method were employed to synthetically construct design rainfall patterns for both short-and long-duration rainfall events,respectively.The main findings are as follows:(1)The spatial distribution of the maximum 1-hour precipitation in Guangzhou exhibits a pattern of higher values in central Cuangzhou and lower values in the northeast and southwest,with the highest value observed in southern Zengcheng.In contrast,the maximum 24-hour precipitation is higher in northeast-high and lower in the southwest,with a high-value center located at the junction of Conghua and Zengcheng,while low-value areas extended from Panyu to Nansha,Indicating a notable spatial heterogeneity.(2)For short-duration design rainfall patterns,the peak positions at Guangzhou and Huadu stations vary considerably with rainfall duration,accompanied by large fluctuations in the peak position coefficient.In comparison,The peak position coefficients at Conghua and Zengcheng stations remain relatively stable,followed by those at Panyu station.The peak rainfall intensity is the strongest at the Zengcheng station,followed by the Panyu and Conghua stations,whereas Guangzhou and Huadu stations exhibit comparatively lower peak rainfall amounts.(3)For long-duration design rainfall patterns,the maximum 1-hour cumulative rainfall intensity ranks as follows:Guangzhou>Huadu>Zengcheng>Panyu>Conghua.In terms of the proportion of accumulated rainfall occurring at the peak time,the order is Panyu>Guangzhou>Zengcheng>Huadu>Conghua.
蒋承霖;黄浩辉;植石群
广东省气候中心,广东 广州 510641广东省气候中心,广东 广州 510641广东省气候中心,广东 广州 510641
天文与地球科学
极端降水设计暴雨雨型芝加哥雨型同频率分析法雨型广州市
extreme rainfalldesign rainfall patternChicago rainfall patternequal frequency analysis method rainfall patternGuangzhou city
《热带气象学报》 2026 (4)
499-505,7
广东省气象局科学技术研究项目(2016B26)资助
评论