基于NICAM的热带地区极端对流活动对全球变暖响应的研究OA

The tropics represent the most dynamically active region for deep convection globally,exerting a profound influence on the Earth's global energy cycle,hydrological cycle,and climate system.With global warming,increasing attention is being focused on how extreme convective weather will change in the future.This study examines the climatology of tropical extreme convective systems and their future projections using simulations from a global atmospheric model(NICAM)with a 14 km horizontal resolution against TRMM satellite observations.The results demonstrate that the NICAM model effectively reproduces the ambient atmospheric environment and convective activity in tropical regions,exhibiting correlation coefficients of 0.65(near-surface temperature)and 0.89(specific humidity)against ERA-5 reanalysis,respectively.The spatial and temporal correlations for extreme deep convective systems reach 0.53 and 0.77 with satellite observations,respectively.A comparison of 30-year historical(1979-2008)and future(2075-2104)extreme convection simulations reveals that while tropospheric specific humidity increases substantially under warming,but relative humidity over tropical land declines significantly,suggesting a robust trend toward drier tropical continental atmosphere in the future.Consequently,the frequency three distinct categories of extreme convective systems is projected to increase overall,with a markedly stronger enhancement over tropical oceans than over tropical landmasses.