荒漠绿洲区水资源配置空间均衡程度三层次评价方法OA

Extreme water scarcity,highly concentrated agricultural water consumption,and fierce competition for water resources between agricultural and ecological sectors are examples of the severe spatial mismatches between water availability and socioeconomic development that desert oasis regions in arid northwest China face.By combining various indicators into composite scores,traditional assessment methods often oversimplify these complexities,hiding underlying structural contradictions across sectors and regions.To address this methodological gap,we created a quantitative assessment framework that evaluates the spatial equilibrium of water resource allocation in desert oasis regions from both the supply and demand sides. A hierarchical assessment framework consisting of"resource endowment","regional allocation",and"sectoral security"was created.The degree of alignment between the needs of regional development and the availability of natural water was measured at the resource endowment tier.The spatial equilibrium of interregional water distribution under current engineering infrastructure and regulatory arrangements was assessed at the regional allocation tier.To capture the dynamic evolution of water security at the sectoral security tier,three progressive stages were created:current sectoral equilibrium;projected sectoral equilibrium in planning year under the current water supply infrastructure;and projected sectoral equilibrium in planning year incorporating inter-basin water transfer projects.To better reflect supply-demand matching across regions,the Theil index was improved by replacing the traditional average allocation benchmark with a supply-demand share one.The Hoover index was modified to better characterize structural disparities in sectoral water scarcity by incorporating sector-specific dimensions and water shortage rate coefficients.Three fundamental matching logics were unified by the methodical integration of a supply-demand coordinated assessment perspective throughout the framework:"water endowment versus development demand","water supply versus reasonable demand",and"sectoral allocation versus sectoral demand".A representative inland desert oasis basin in northwest China was used to define seventeen computational units,including water yield zones,socioeconomic water use zones,and ecological response zones.SkyRowas,a rule-based water resource allocation model,was used to simulate water demand under both the current and planning year conditions. The findings showed that the spatial equilibrium contradictions of water resources had clear hierarchical features.The Theil index for the natural spatial distribution of water endowment rose to 1.49,indicating a severe inherent imbalance between water-yielding mountainous regions and water-consuming oasis plains.Following regulation by existing reservoirs and canal systems,the Theil index for inter-regional water allocation fell sharply to 0.03,demonstrating that current infrastructure has significantly reduced natural endowment disparities and achieved a more equitable regional distribution of water resources.This level of spatial equilibrium remained stable across all evaluated scenarios.In contrast,sectoral water allocation equity proved highly sensitive to variations in water supply conditions.Under current conditions,agricultural-dominant units exhibited severe intra-sectoral inequity,whereas non-agricultural units maintained comparatively balanced allocations.Population growth,industrial expansion,and increased ecological protection requirements worsened sectoral water shortages in the planning year,assuming no new water supply infrastructure,leading to Hoover indices across various computational units.Upon implementation of inter-basin water transfer projects,Hoover indices declined significantly across all computational units;four units attained a Hoover index of 0-indicating perfect sectoral equilibrium,wherein domestic,industrial,and ecological water demands were fully satisfied.Agricultural-dominant units experienced the most pronounced improvements. The three-tier framework effectively identified hierarchical contradictions in water resource allocation.The results showed that the marginal benefits of further optimizing inter-regional water allocation were significantly less than those derived from reducing sectoral competition.The ability of inter-basin water transfer projects to specifically alleviate sectoral structural contradictions was their primary source of effectiveness;by raising the overall system water availability,they quickly decreased the level of sectoral competition.Nevertheless,achieving a high level of equilibrium still required complementary internal measures,such as agricultural water conservation,thereby suggesting dual pathways for agricultural-dominated units.The improved indices,together with the supply-demand coordinated perspective,enabled precise alignment between assessment outcomes and actual water allocation contradictions,directly supporting informed management decisions.The proposed framework provides a structured and operationally feasible diagnostic tool for assessing spatial equilibrium in desert oasis regions.