长江中游地区耕地林果化时空演变特征及其影响因素OA

The conversion of cultivated land into forest and fruit land(CFFL)is a common mode of livelihood transformation for farmers in the hilly areas of Southern China,and its scientific management is vital to national food security and stable social development.Taking the middle reaches of the Yangtze River as the study region,this study systematically analyzed the scale evolution,spatio-temporal patterns,and driving factors of CFFL on both county and 10-km grid scales,utilizing land use data from 1990 to 2020,through spatial autocorrelation analysis and the geographical detector model.(1)From 1990 to 2020,the total area of CFFL in the study region reached 4.003 6 million hm2,exhibiting a"V-shaped"trend.The spatial pattern was characterized by being high in the Northwest and low in the Southeast,with hotspots concentrated in the mountainous areas of Western Hubei and western Hunan.(2)From 2000 to 2010,the driving factors of CFFL were dominated by agricultural output value,total GDP,and annual precipitation.Between 2010 and 2020,the explanatory power of economic factors decreased significantly,while that of natural factors enhanced,and the driving mechanism shifted toward complex multi-element coupling of policy,nature,and market.(3)CFFL was the result of non-linear coupling driving among natural endowments,socio-economic factors,and policy interventions.Considering its spatial differentiation,differentiated governance strategies should be implemented.Specifically,strict land use regulations and rigid constraints must be enforced in the major grain-producing plains,such as the Jianghan,Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake plains,to safeguard the bottom line of food security.In mountainous and ecologically fragile areas,such as Western Hubei and Western Hunan,the orderly transition of low-yield sloping farmlands to high-value ecological-economic forests should be guided through policy subsidies and agricultural technology extension,thereby achieving a comprehensive balance among food security,ecological conservation,and farmers'income growth.