海平面上升背景下北部湾台风风暴潮的数值研究OA

Global warming has led to accelerated sea-level rise,thereby exacerbating storm surge disasters along the coast of the Beibu Gulf.Based on the ADCIRC model,this study conducts numerical simulations of ty-phoon-induced storm surges in the Beibu Gulf.It analyzes the storm surge elevations under two typhoon tracks:entry via the Leizhou Peninsula(60.1%)and via Hainan(29.2%).Furthermore,it examines changes in storm surges under future sea-level rise scenarios of 0.77 and 1.02 m.The results show that,under the current scenario,the maximum storm surge elevations(rise and fall)caused by Type-1 typhoons along the Guangxi coast reach 1-2.5 and 0.8-4 m,respectively,whereas those caused by Type-2 typhoons reach 1-1.7 and 0.7-1.8 m,respectively.Under future sea-level rise scenarios,the maximum storm surge increments and decrements in most areas of the Beibu Gulf show a decreasing trend,with reductions ranging from 0 to 18 cm and 0 to 45 cm,respectively,along the Guangxi coast.Under the influence of most typhoons,the extreme water level at representative stations along the Guangxi coast increases by up to 6 cm.The research results provide a theoretical basis for future storm surge dis-aster prevention and mitigation along the Guangxi coast.