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内蒙古复合干旱和热浪事件特征及其归因OA

Analysis of the characteristics and attribution of compound drought and heatwave events in Inner Mongolia

中文摘要英文摘要

全球气候变暖背景下,复合干旱和热浪事件(Compound Drought and Heatwave,CDHW)正以高频率、高强度和高历时对全球多个地区产生深远影响.本研究以内蒙古为研究区,基于1961-2021年逐日气温与降水数据,运用日尺度标准化指数对研究区不同CDHW事件进行识别,在此基础上,采用气候倾向率、偏相关分析和地理探测器等方法,对不同CDHW事件的时空演变特征及影响因素进行研究.结果发现,1961-2021年内蒙古四类CDHW事件的历时、频次、干旱强度和热浪强度由西南向东北逐渐增大;四类CDHW事件特征指标总体呈上升态势,其中交集型(d-and-h)和热浪干旱型(h-cond-d)事件上升趋势显著;降水与四类CDHW事件变化的相关性更高,其显著性检验占比均达到97%以上;土壤类型和地表下行短波辐射是不同类型CDHW事件历时和频次的主要驱动因子,通过交互作用不同驱动因子对历时和频次的解释力均呈现增强效应,且对历时的影响更高.

Under the background of global climate warming,compound drought and heatwave events(Com-pound Drought and Heatwave,CDHW)are having a profound impact various regions worldwide with increasing frequency,intensity,and duration.Based on the daily temperature and precipitation data from 1961 to 2021 in Inner Mongolia,we employed a daily-scale standardized index to identify different CDHW events in the study ar-ea.Subsequently,we analyzed the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and influencing factors of vari-ous CDHW events using climate tendency rate,partial correlation analysis and geographic detectors.The results show that:the duration,frequency,drought intensity and heatwave intensity of the four types of CDHW events in Inner Mongolia from 1961 to 2021 increased gradually from the southwest to the northeast;The characteristic indicators of the four types of CDHW events exhibited an upward trend,with significant increases observed in the intersection type(d-and-h)and the heatwave conditioned on droughttype(h-cond-d)events;The correlation be-tween precipitation and the changes in the four types of CDHW events was found to be high,with over 97%of the significance tests indicating a significant relationship;Soil type and downward shortwave radiation at the sur-face were identified as the main driving factors for the duration and frequency of different types of CDHW events.Moreover,the interaction between various driving factors showed an enhanced explanatory power for du-ration and frequency,with a greater impact observed on duration.

郭佳丽;郭恩亮;王永芳;王俊

内蒙古师范大学地理科学学院,内蒙古 呼和浩特 010022内蒙古师范大学地理科学学院,内蒙古 呼和浩特 010022内蒙古师范大学地理科学学院,内蒙古 呼和浩特 010022||蒙古高原气候变化与区域响应高校重点实验室,内蒙古 呼和浩特 010022内蒙古师范大学地理科学学院,内蒙古 呼和浩特 010022

天文与地球科学

复合干旱和热浪事件偏相关分析地理探测器内蒙古

compound drought and heatwave eventspartial Correlation Analysisgeographical detectorInner Mongolia

《高原气象》 2026 (4)

998-1010,13

国家自然科学基金地区项目(42261019)一流学科科研专项项目(YLXKZX-NSD-027)内蒙古自治区自然科学基金面上项目(2024MS04002)内蒙古自治区重点研发和成果转化计划项目(2025YFSH0056,2025KJHZ0047)

10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2025.00112

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