经济环境不确定性对制造业全球价值链分工影响及作用机制OA

The current global economy is facing multiple uncertainties,which are profoundly affecting and reshaping the layout of manufacturing global value chain(GVC)labor division in various countries.Based on panel data of 31 countries and regions from 1995 to 2018,this paper empirically investigates howeconomic environmental uncertainty affects labor division in manufacturing global value chains and its underlying mechanisim.The findings show as follows:First,economic environmental uncertainty significantly reduces the GVC division status of manufacturing industries,resulting in a decline in forward participation and a rise in backward participation.Secondly,economic environmental uncertainty exerts a stronger inhibitory effect on manufacturing GVCs in the Asia-Pacific region,countries with weak innovation capacity and institutionally constrained countries.It significantly pushes up the backward participation of the Asia-Pacific region and inhibits the forward participation of European and American countries,while countries with robust institutional frameworks and strong innovation capacities exhibit superior risk resilience.Thirdly,further analysis indicates that economic environmental uncertainty primarily operates through altering outward foreign direct investment(OFDI)and manufactured goods imports,while trade agreements can effectively alleviate its negative impact.Based on the conclusions,this paper proposes targeted policy suggestions from three dimensions:building a stable and predictable institutional environment,accelerating the improvement of independent innovation capacity,and advancing high-standard opening-up.