强干扰驱动下海河流域多范式洪水预报调度体系研究OA

The Haihe River basin occupies a strategically prominent position,underpinning multiple major national strategies.Characterized by distinctive natural conditions and subjected to intensive disturbances from multiple sources,and against the backdrop of global climate change,the basin has experienced frequent extreme flood disasters in recent years.Traditional flood forecasting and operation methods can no longer meet the requirements of precise flood prevention and control.This study focuses on three core challenges under strong disturbance conditions:insufficient precision in precipitation forecasting,difficulty in unifying the accuracy and lead time of flood forecasting,and poor synergy between intelligence and efficiency in forecasting and operation.Following the roadmap of"problem orientation—demand traction—technological breakthrough—application priority",a multi paradigm flood forecasting and operation system is constructed.To address the issues of inconsistent spatial scales and discontinuous temporal scales in model-based precipitation forecasts,as well as the large uncertainty and insufficient refinement in rainfall location forecasting,a seamless precipitation forecasting technology system tailored to the characteristics of the Haihe River basin was developed.This system breaks through the bottlenecks of low extrapolation accuracy and short effective duration in nowcasting,and overcomes the challenges of low spatiotemporal resolution in short term precipitation forecasting and large uncertainties in rainfall intensity and location forecasting for short and medium term periods.To tackle the problems of severe disturbances from diverse natural and social factors on flood runoff generation,concentration and routing,as well as the poor adaptability,low accuracy and short operation timeliness of conventional forecasting and operation models,This study proposes the matrix based"Haihe Model"for multi paradigm flood forecasting and operation under strong disturbances,which raises the flood forecasting accuracy at key nodes in the basin from 70%to over 85%.To overcome the difficulties in dynamic and intelligent regulation of water conservancy project groups and the insufficient systematicness and timeliness of decision support,an intelligent flood control decision making platform for the Haihe River basin was developed.It enables rapid and intelligent decision making for the safe operation and optimal scheduling of flood control projects,addresses the challenges of"multiple parameters,large variables,and low efficiency"in forecasting and operation models,and enhances flood control decision making efficiency from the hour level to the minute level.The research results have demonstrated notable effectiveness in practical flood defense operations,including the consecutive summer autumn floods of the Zhangwei River in 2021,the"23·7"catastrophic flood in the Haihe River basin,and the"25·7"regional major flood in the Haihe River basin,providing critical technical support and theoretical references for basin wide flood disaster mitigation.