雨水情监测预报"三道防线"与防洪"四预"耦合贯通应用关键技术研究OA

Accelerating the establishment of the"three defense lines"for rainfall and water regime monitoring and forecasting and the"forecast,early-warning,rehearsal and contingency planning"("four pre")system for flood control is important for advancing the development of digital twin water conservancy and enhancing the capacity for flood and drought disaster prevention.To solve problems including data barriers,insufficient fusion of computational data,and poor connection between forecasting and operation scheduling in the practice of the"three defense lines"and"four pre",this paper sorted out their chain relationship and proposed a key technical system for their coupling and integration.Based on the full-chain perception system of"precipitation in clouds,surface precipitation,and river runoff"composed of meteorological satellites,rain radars,rain gauge networks and hydrological station networks,this paper proposed collaborative networking and computational data correction methods for the"three defense lines",and developed technologies including multi-source rainfall fusion,multi-temporal-spatial scale flood forecasting,progressive dynamic early warning,and a three-chain coupled operation mode.Focusing on flood forecasting demands for different forecast lead times,this paper established a driving mechanism integrating radar extrapolation,numerical weather forecasting and observed rainfall and water regime data.Small-scale fused rainfall data improves the short-term forecasting capacity of mountain floods and small&medium river floods,while medium and large-scale fused rainfall combined with hydrological monitoring can support the forecasting evolution of river floods.By taking the digital-twin Nangang River in Huangpu District,Guangzhou,Guangdong as a case,this paper carried out the construction and application of the"three defense lines"and"four pre"for flood control in watersheds.The results show that the proposed mode can improve flood forecasting and scheduling capacity for small&medium rivers,and provide reference for the construction of digital twin water conservancy systems.