基于博弈论—改进可拓云的土石坝运行安全评价OA

The safety assessment of earth-rock dams is challenged by indicator interdependencies,unreasonable weight assignment,and inherent uncertainties.To address these issues,this study developed a comprehensive evaluation index system.Methodologically,the DEMATEL-ISM model was first applied to elucidate the internal correlations and hierarchical structure of the indicators.Subsequently,subjective and objective weights were determined using integrated AHP-DEMATEL and improved CRITIC methods,respectively,and combined optimally via game theory.Finally,the safety grade was determined using an extension cloud model enhanced by an improved optimal cloud entropy.Based on this,a"refinement-internal connection-complementarity-optimization"four-in-one concept-based safety rating method for earth-rock dams is constructed.Finally,taking the Mengjin Reservoir earth-rock dam as the research object,the results show that the safety level of this earth-rock dam is"Grade V"(Erx=4.675 7),and its operation is"safe".Seepage damage is the key risk source of this earth-rock dam project.Compared with the traditional extension cloud model,the evaluation results are consistent with the actual situation and have a high credibility(λ=0.003 0),which can provide a reference for the safety evaluation of dams.