基于OPA的特大基坑导流方案风险决策方法研究OA

The optimal selection of diversion schemes for water conservancy and hydropower projects is a multi-objective decision-making problem.This study addresses the unique risk scenario of an ultra-large-scale hydropower station project:its exceptionally large foundation pit area means that cofferdam breaching would trigger complete pit inundation,causing substantial economic losses and severe project delays.The decision-making process for diversion schemes in such extra-large foundation pits differs significantly from those in typical alpine canyon settings,necessitating comprehensive consideration of inundation-related losses.Building upon risk analysis of diversion standards,this research holistically evaluates four decision factors:deterministic investments in the diversion system,risk losses from extra-large foundation pits inundation,cofferdam filling intensity constraints,and dynamic risks during operation.Leveraging the characteristics of the Ordinal Priority Approach(OPA),we establish an enhanced OPA-based risk decision model to analyze alternative schemes.Case studies demonstrate that this method effectively captures the risk-loss characteristics of mega-foundation-pit diversion systems and facilitates optimal scheme selection.