基于复杂网络的城市轨道交通系统突发事件多层灾害链研究OA

As lifeline engineering in modern cities,when disasters occur during the operation of urban rail transit systems,they induce secondary disasters through the incubation of the disaster environment,forming disaster chains.To better grasp the risks brought by disaster chains in urban rail transit systems,based on 457 accident cases of urban rail transit systems in China,17 categories of typical primary disaster events were summarized,and combining the spatial structural characteristics of the line layer,platform layer,and concourse layer of urban rail transit systems,a multi-layer disaster chain network model of urban rail transit systems was constructed.Furthermore,degree centrality,betweenness centrality,closeness centrality,and clustering coefficient were selected as evaluation indicators,and the analytic hierarchy process was used to determine the indicator weights to evaluate the comprehensive importance of nodes in the multi-layer disaster chain network.The results show that the constructed disaster chain network model can reflect the propagation relationships of disaster events,among which nodes such as equipment failure,unsafe passenger behavior,large-scale power outage,flood,and fire have high comprehensive importance and are key nodes in disaster chain propagation,which should be regarded as priority targets for operational safety management and emergency prevention and control.The research results can provide a reference for hierarchical and regional risk identification,key node control,and system resilience improvement of urban rail transit systems.