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2026年度国内小麦市场形势展望OA

Prospect of Domestic Wheat Market in 2026

中文摘要英文摘要

2026年以来,国内小麦市场价格先涨后跌,相比年初价格水平整体平稳.市场上2025年产小麦逐渐消耗、供应趋紧,玉米价格上涨导致小麦饲用替代增加,小麦市场有效供给出现阶段性偏紧,带动小麦价格稳中上涨.但最低收购价小麦拍卖增量投放,面粉需求逐渐进入淡季,小麦市场供需格局总体转向宽松,价格从前期高点逐渐回落.随着新粮上市后,小麦新陈价差快速靠拢,收购市场从活跃逐渐趋于平稳,新麦价格也随之高位回落.预计后期在供需总体宽松、政策支撑导向较强等影响下,国内小麦市场总体将平稳运行,阶段性价格有小幅涨跌.

Since 2026,the price of domestic wheat market had increased first and then decreased,and the overall price was stable compared with the beginning of the year.In the domestic wheat market,the wheat produced in 2025 was gradually consumed and the supply was tightening.The rise of maize price led to the increase of wheat feed substitution,and the effective supply of wheat market was tightening in stages,which drove the price of wheat to rise steadily.However,the minimum purchase price wheat auction was incrementally launched,and the demand for flour gradually entered the off-season.The supply and demand pattern of the wheat market generally turned loose,and the price gradually fell from the previous high point.After the new grain was listed,the price difference of wheat was fast approaching,and the acquisition market gradually stabilized from active,and the price of new wheat also fell back.It is expected that in the later period,under the influence of loose supply and demand and strong policy support,the domestic wheat market will generally run smoothly,and the stage price will rise and fall slightly.

焦善伟

河南省储备粮管理集团有限公司,河南 郑州 450000

农业科技

小麦生产消费政策国际市场后市预测

WheatProductionConsumptionPolicyInternational marketFuture forecast

《种业导刊》 2026 (4)

3-5,3

10.3969/j.issn.1003-4749.2026.04.001

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