下背痛对中国人群健康负担的影响趋势分析及预测模型构建OA

Objective To explore the characteristics of disease burden of low back pain(LBP)in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2023,and predict its development trend from 2024 to 2040,so as to provide data support for the formulation of public health policies.Methods Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023(GBD 2023)database,the Joinpoint model and decomposition analysis were adopted to quantify the changing trend of LBP burden in China.The autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model was used to predict the future trend,with the data for prediction stratified by gender and age group.Results In 2023,the number of LBP patients in China reached 95.3240 million,the number of incident cases was 41.3836 million,and the disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)were 10.6359 million person-years.Although the absolute numbers of prevalent cases,incident cases,and DALYs increased significantly compared with 1990,the age-standardized rates(ASRs)all showed a significant downward trend(average annual percentage changes were-0.90%,-0.84%,and-0.89%,respectively).decomposition analysis revealed that population age structure was the primary positive driving factor for the growth of LBP disease burden in China,while changes in epidemiological trends played a key inhibitory role in prevalence and DALYs,with significant gender differences.ARIMA model prediction indicated that the LBP-related ASRs would continue to decrease in both males and females from 2024 to 2040,but the LBP burden in females would remain higher than that in males in China.Conclusions The baseline burden of LBP in China is heavy,affected by multiple factors such as population structure,gender differences,behavioral and occupational factors.In the future,targeted interventions for specific populations and occupations,as well as multi-sectoral collaboration,are needed to continuously reduce the disease burden.