1961-2023年新疆区域致灾冰雹日数时空特征及趋势预估OA

Damaging hail significantly affects agricultural production in Xinjiang.Accordingly,timely diagnosis of its spatio-temporal characteristics is crucial for safeguarding grain,cotton,and specialty forest and fruit crops in the region.This study analyzed damaging hail data from 1961 to 2023,using methods such as the Mann-Kend-all(M-K)abrupt change test,ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD),and the Hurst index.The aim is to investigate the spatio-temporal distribution and future trends of damaging hail days in Xinjiang.The results in-dicate that:(1)The spatial distribution of damaging hail days decreases from west to east,primarily concentrating along mountain foothills and river valleys.Seasonally,the distribution follows the order:summer>spring>au-tumn>winter.The highest center shifts southward in spring,expands northward in summer,and retracts in au-tumn.It peaks in Aksu Prefecture during spring and autumn but migrates northward to Wenquan County in sum-mer and annually.The western region exhibits a relatively greater increasing trend.(2)Over the past 63 years,Xinjiang has experienced a significant overall increase in damaging hail days,with the largest increase occurring in summer and June.The intra-annual distribution follows a unimodal pattern,peaking in early July.(3)EEMD decomposition reveals that damaging hail days,annually and in spring,summer,and autumn,primarily exhibit quasi-3-and quasi-6/7-year interannual cycles,alongside quasi-13/16/21-year interdecadal cycles.(4)Future hail prevention efforts should prioritize regions such as Bortala and Tacheng Prefectures,as these are historically high-incidence areas and show a continuous upward trend.These findings offer a scientific basis for optimizing the layout of artificial hail suppression operations,allocating hail prevention and mitigation resources,and adjust-ing agricultural planting structures in Xinjiang.