基于可变模糊聚类的缺资料地区洪水预报参数移植研究OA
Research on Parameter Transfer for Flood Forecasting in Data-Scarce Regions Based on Variable Fuzzy Clustering
我国小型水库数量庞大,许多建于20世纪六七十年代.由于水文站点稀缺且资料有限,这些水库在自我保障能力方面存在不足,溃坝事故时有发生.因此,开展小型水库洪水预报研究具有重要意义.针对安徽省小型水库资料稀缺导致洪水预报精度低的问题,该文提出了一种基于可变模糊聚类的洪水预报参数移植方法.首先,收集小型水库控制流域的降雨、径流、下垫面等数据;然后,利用可变模糊聚类对安徽省7个参证水库和20个小型水库进行水文相似性分类,划分为3个水文相似类;最后,构建集总式新安江水文模型,对比参数移植前后各水库洪水模拟精度,验证所提方法的合理性.研究成果可为安徽省小型水库及其他缺乏资料地区的洪水预报方案提供参考.
China has a vast number of small reservoirs,many constructed during the 1960s and 1970s.Due to sparse hydrological monitoring stations and limited data,these reservoirs exhibit insufficient self-protection capabilities,with dam failures occurring from time to time.Therefore,conducting flood forecasting research for small reservoirs is of significant importance.To address the low accuracy of flood forecasting caused by sparse data for small reservoirs in Anhui Province,this paper proposes a flood forecasting parameter transfer method based on variable fuzzy clustering.First,data on rainfall,runoff,and land surface conditions within the catchment areas of small reservoirs are collected.Then,variable fuzzy clustering is applied to classify seven reference reservoirs and 20 small reservoirs in Anhui Province into three hydrological similarity categories based on their hydrological similarity.Finally,the Xin'anjiang River integrated hydrological model is constructed to compare flood simulation accuracy before and after parameter transfer,validating the proposed method's validity.This study provides a reference for flood forecasting schemes in small reservoirs of Anhui Province and other data-scarce regions.
邓庆君
海南中欣科技有限公司,海口 570203
建筑与水利
洪水预报小型水库无资料地区新安江水文模型可变模糊聚类参数移植
flood forecastingsmall reservoirsdata-scarce regionsXin'anjiang River hydrological modelvariable fuzzy clusteringparameter transfer
《广东水利水电》 2026 (8)
1-7,15,8
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