高铁运营期经济社会-资源环境效应耦合协调演化研究OA

This paper proposed a system analysis framework that combined the difference-in-differences(DID)method,counterfactual analysis and improved coupling coordination degree model to reveal the complex nonlinear dynamic relationship between the economic-social effects and the resource-environment effects brought by high-speed rail operation.Firstly,the measurement indexes of economic,social,resource and environmental effects of high-speed rail were identified through theoretical analysis.Then use DID and counterfactual analysis to control confounding factors,quantitatively evaluate the multiple effects of high-speed rail,and take Lanzhou-Xinjiang high-speed rail as an example for empirical test.Based on Pearson correlation coefficient and grey correlation degree model,the key coupling indexes were screened.The improved coupling coordination degree model was used to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of the coupling coordination relationship between economic society and resource environment effect.Some conclusions are drawn as follows.The Lanzhou-Xinjiang high-speed railway has a significant impact on the economy,society,resources and environment of the nine cities along the line,especially in the three provincial capital cities of Lanzhou,Xining and Urumqi.The promotion of economic and social effects is significantly higher than that of resources and environment effects,indicating that the high-speed railway more directly promotes economic growth and social development,while the impact on resources and environment is relatively small or lagging behind.The coupling degree of the two types of effects in each city is higher than 0.8,which is in a highly coordinated high-level coupling state.The coupling coordination degree is greater than 0.5,showing a coordinated development trend as a whole.The coupling coordination relationship between the two types of effects shows obvious spatial and temporal heterogeneity.In the time dimension,it can be divided into three stages,which are the initial adjustment,the continuous optimization,and the external shock and repair.On the spatial dimension,it can be divided into three categories,which are the continuous reluctant coordination type,the fluctuation coordination type,and the advanced decline coordination type.The system analysis framework constructed in this study integrates DID,counterfactual analysis and improved coupling coordination degree model,which can provide more operational method support for the quantitative evaluation of long-term economic,social,resource and environmental effects of high-speed rail,intercity railway,expressway and other transportation infrastructure,the diagnosis of multi-effect synergy and the formulation of regional differentiation strategies.