首页|期刊导航|北京航空航天大学学报|基于Copula相关性建模的机电复合传动装置系统可靠性分析

基于Copula相关性建模的机电复合传动装置系统可靠性分析OA

Reliability analysis of an electromechanical integrated transmission system based on Copula correlation modeling

中文摘要英文摘要

针对机电复合传动装置中多子系统在载荷传递、控制回路和功能协同作用下呈现的相关失效特性,在保持各子系统边缘可靠性模型不变的前提下,引入 Copula 方法对系统内部依赖结构进行建模.该方法通过累积分布函数将子系统寿命数据映射至统一的概率空间,实现边缘分布与相关结构的解耦描述.结合工程失效机理分析不同 Copula 模型的依赖特性,选取 Gaussian Copula 构建系统联合失效模型,并给出失效时间样本的生成流程.通过 Kendall τ 秩相关系数对样本相关性进行验证,结果表明,生成数据与预设依赖结构一致.进一步分析识别出电机驱动子系统与驱动电机控制器之间的强耦合关系,并定位了联合失效的高风险区域.研究结果表明,Copula 建模方法能够有效刻画系统层相关失效特征,为协同监测与维护决策提供可靠依据.

Considering the correlated failure characteristics of multiple subsystems in an electromechanical integrated transmission system arising from load transfer,control loops,and functional coupling,this study introduces a Copula-based approach to model the internal dependency structure while preserving the marginal reliability models of individual subsystems.By mapping subsystem lifetime data into a unified probability space via cumulative distribution functions,the proposed method achieves decoupled modeling of marginal distributions and dependency structures.The process for creating failure time samples is described,and a Gaussian Copula is chosen to build the system-level joint failure model based on an examination of the dependency characteristics of several Copula families combined with engineering failure mechanisms.The dependency structure of the generated samples is validated using the Kendall τ rank correlation coefficient,and the results show good consistency with the predefined correlation matrix.Additional investigation finds high-risk areas of joint failure and reveals a significant coupling link between the drive motor controller and the motor drive subsystem.The results demonstrate that the Copula-based framework can effectively characterize system-level correlated failures,providing quantitative support for coordinated monitoring and maintenance decision-making.

郭磊;沈鉴彪;李慎龙;李训明;李同辉;张楠;张睦扬;王兴坚

中国北方车辆研究所,北京 100072中国北方车辆研究所,北京 100072中国北方车辆研究所,北京 100072中国北方车辆研究所,北京 100072中国北方车辆研究所,北京 100072中国北方车辆研究所,北京 100072北京航空航天大学 自动化科学与电气工程学院,北京 100191北京航空航天大学 自动化科学与电气工程学院,北京 100191||北京航空航天大学宁波创新研究院,宁波 315800

通用工业技术

Copula 函数机电复合传动装置系统可靠性依赖结构建模联合失效分析

Copula functionelectromechanical integrated transmission devicesystem reliabilitydependence structure modelingjoint failure analysis

《北京航空航天大学学报》 2026 (8)

2748-2755,8

国家自然科学基金(52275044,62303030,U2233212) National Natural Science Foundation of China(52275044,62303030,U2233212)

10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2026.0098

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