首页|期刊导航|北京航空航天大学学报|随机过程-失效机理模型综合的油滤剩余寿命预测

随机过程-失效机理模型综合的油滤剩余寿命预测OA

RUL prediction of oil filter based on random process-failure mechanism model integration

中文摘要英文摘要

油滤作为保障液压系统油液清洁的关键部件,在实际运行中,由于颗粒污染物的尺寸与到来时间具有较强随机性,且制造、安装公差与认知不确定性难以避免,其剩余寿命预测面临参数不确定性与模型不确定性带来的双重挑战.基于此,提出一种融合失效机理退化模型与基于数据的随机过程模型的剩余寿命预测方法,基于贝叶斯推断理论结合实时退化观测数据与不同候选模型优势,对油滤的剩余使用寿命进行了有效预测.通过试验验证,所提方法的退化轨迹预测均方根误差(RMSE)为 0.003 9 MPa,相较于传统失效机理 Ergun物理机理模型与 Wiener随机过程模型分别降低了79.9%和77.5%,表现出良好的预测精度和泛化能力,具有较高工程应用价值.

Due to the considerable randomness in contaminant size and arrival,as well as unavoidable epistemic uncertainties and manufacturing/installation variations,both parametric and model uncertainties in practice pose a challenge to the oil filter's remaining useful life prediction.The oil filter is a crucial component in guaranteeing hydraulic fluid cleanliness.This paper introduces a remaining useful life prediction method that fuses a physics-based degradation model with data-driven stochastic process models.Based on Bayesian inference,the method achieves effective RUL prediction for oil filters by synthesizing real-time degradation observations with the respective advantages of different candidate models.In comparison to the Ergun and Wiener models,experimental validation shows that the root mean square error(RMSE)of real-time degradation prediction for oil filter achieves 0.003 9 MPa,resulting in drops of 79.9%and 77.5%,respectively.The results indicate that the proposed method exhibits superior prediction accuracy and strong generalization capability,highlighting its practical value for engineering applications.

王伟杰;郭丁珲;耿艺璇

太原理工大学 机械工程学院,太原 030024太原理工大学 机械工程学院,太原 030024太原理工大学 机械工程学院,太原 030024

机械制造

油滤剩余寿命预测贝叶斯模型综合失效机理维纳过程

oil filterremaining useful life predictionBayesian model integrationfailure mechanismsWiener process

《北京航空航天大学学报》 2026 (8)

2738-2747,10

国家自然科学基金(52205065)山西省基础研究计划(202403011212005) National Natural Science Foundation of China(52205065)Fundamental Research Program of Shanxi Province(202403011212005)

10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2025.0706

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