基于SRP模型的新疆土地系统生态脆弱性时空演变及驱动因素分析OA

[Objective]Xinjiang is an important ecological security barrier in the arid region of northwest China,its land ecosystem is inherently fragile and under the dual stresses of climate change and human activities.This study aims to reveal the spatio-temporal evolution law and driving mechanism of land ecological vulnerability in Xinjiang from 2000 to 2020,to provide a scientific basis for ecological zoning management and ecological restoration project implementation across the region.[Methods]Based on the sensitivity-resilience-pressure(SRP)model,an evaluation system containing 13 indicators was constructed.The analytic hierarchy process(AHP)was adopted to determine indicator weights,and combined with spatial autocorrelation and geographical detector model,the spatio-temporal differentiation characteristics and composite driving mechanism of land ecological vulnerability in Xinjiang were systematically analyzed.[Results]From 2000 to 2020,the land ecological vulnerability in Xinjiang showed an overall continuous deterioration trend.The comprehensive index increased from 0.590 to 0.616,and the whole region entered a severe vulnerability state at the end of the study period.The proportion of extremely vulnerable areas rose from 24.70％to 28.32％,becoming the vulnerability level with the highest proportion.Spatially,it presented a differentiation pattern of"low in northern Xinjiang,high in southern Xinjiang,low in mountainous areas,and high in basins."The global Moran's Iindex was all greater than 0.32(P<0.01),indicating significant spatial agglomeration characteristics.In terms of driving mechanisms,grassland proportion and precipitation were the core dominant factors.All pairwise interactions of the 8 selected factors showed a two-factor enhancement effect,among which the interaction between precipitation and cultivated land proportion was the strongest(qvalue 0.807 9-0.883 7).[Conclusions]The evolution of land ecological vulnerability in Xinjiang is the result of long-term coupling between natural background conditions and human activities.Adhering to the principle of"determining land use and greening by water availability,"strictly controlling the disorderly expansion of cultivated land,and giving priority to protecting grassland ecosystems are the key measures to reduce regional ecological vulnerability.