中国老年人衰弱发生影响因素的滞后效应分析OA

Objective:To explore the nonlinear exposure-lagged characteristics of various influencing factors for frailty in Chinese older adults using the distributed lag non-linear model(DLNM),and to identify the lag windows corresponding to the peak effects of each risk factor,thereby providing evidence for phased and precise frailty prevention.Methods:Data from the 2011,2013,and 2015 waves of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study(CHARLS)were used to obtain information on frailty,cognitive function,depression,activities of daily living,and demographic characteristics.A DLNM was constructed for analysis.Results:A total of 745 older adults were included.Different factors showed marked lag heterogeneity:the effects of physical activity,impaired activities of daily living,depression,poor self-rated health,and pain peaked within relatively short lag periods.In contrast,the peak effect of hearing impairment appeared with a longer delay.Although visual impairment showed a trend toward delayed effects,the association was not statistically significant.Conclusions:The time to peak lagged effects of factors associated with frailty onset varies among Chinese older adults,indicating different pathways and temporal windows through which these factors act.Physical activity,impaired activities of daily living,depression,poor self-rated health,and pain primarily affect individual functional status through short-term effects,whereas sensory impairments such as hearing and visual dysfunction tend to exhibit delayed cumulative effects.Phased interventions should be implemented based on these distinct lag characteristics to achieve early prevention and long-term management of frailty.