近51年昌马河流域水沙演变特征及其驱动因素分析OA
Analysis of evolution characteristics and driving factors of runoff and sediment load in Changma River Basin over past 51 years
[目的]揭示昌马河流域水沙演变规律、水沙协调特征及其主要驱动因素,为流域水沙治理、水资源开发利用和生态环境保护提供科学依据.[方法]基于1972-2022年昌马堡站月径流量和月输沙量数据,采用TFPW-MK趋势检验、水沙关系协调性分析和累积斜率变化率曲线法等,系统分析流域水沙年内分配、变化趋势、突变特征、不协调度及影响因素.[结果]近51年来,径流量和输沙量年内分配渐趋于不均匀;分别以1.56亿m³/10 a和4.55万t/a的速率呈上升趋势,且具有明显的周期变化,均于1998年发生突变;逐年来沙系数均大于0.011,流域总体处于水少沙多状态,6-8月水沙关系最不协调,但随时间的推移失调程度有所减弱;气候变化和人类活动分别是径流量和输沙量变化的主导因素,贡献率分别为64.25%和50.64%.[结论]昌马河流域水沙总体呈增加趋势,年内分配不均和季节性水沙失调特征明显;径流变化主要受气候变化影响,输沙变化主要受人类活动影响.研究结果可为流域水资源优化配置、泥沙防治和生态保护提供支撑.
[Objective]This study reveals the evolution patterns and coordination characteristics of runoff and sediment in the Changma River Basin,along with their primary driving factors,thereby providing a scientific basis for runoff-sediment management,water resources development and utilization,and ecological environmental protection within the river basin.[Methods]Based on monthly runoff and sediment load data from the Changmabao station from 1972 to 2022,this study employed methods including the trend-free pre-whitening Mann-Kendall(TFPW-MK)test,runoff-sediment relationship coordination analysis,and the slope change ratio of cumulative quantity(SCRCQ)method to systematically analyze the intra-annual distribution,variation trends,abrupt changes,incoordination degree,and influencing factors of runoff and sediment in the river basin.[Results]Over the past 51 years,the intra-annual distribution of runoff and sediment load gradually became more uneven.Both showed increasing trends at rates of 1.56×108 m3/10 a and 4.55×104 t/a,respectively,showing significant periodic variations,with abrupt changes both occurring in 1998.The annual sediment coefficient exceeded 0.011,indicating that the river basin was generally in a state of low runoff and high sediment.The runoff-sediment relationship was most uncoordinated from June to August,although the incoordination degree weakened over the past 51 years time.Climate change and human activities were the dominant factors of changes in runoff and sediment load,with contribution rates of 64.25%and 50.64%,respectively.[Conclusion]Runoff and sediment in the Changma River Basin show an overall increasing trend,with pronounced characteristics of uneven intra-annual distribution and seasonal runoff-sediment incoordination.Runoff variations are primarily influenced by climate change,and sediment load variations are mainly driven by human activities.The findings can provide support for optimized water resource allocation,sediment control,and ecological protection in the river basin.
高美华;牛最荣;贾玲
甘肃农业大学 水利水电工程学院,兰州 730070||甘肃省农业智慧节水技术创新中心,兰州 730070甘肃农业大学 水利水电工程学院,兰州 730070||甘肃省农业智慧节水技术创新中心,兰州 730070甘肃农业大学 水利水电工程学院,兰州 730070||甘肃省农业智慧节水技术创新中心,兰州 730070
天文与地球科学
水沙时空变化不协调度TFPW-MK昌马河流域
spatiotemporal variation of runoff and sedimentincoordination degreeTFPW-MKChangma River Basin
《水土保持研究》 2026 (5)
83-94,12
甘肃省水利科学试验研究及技术推广项目"金昌市水资源—经济发展—生态环境协调发展研究"(25GSLK087),"气候变化下出山径流的不确定性分析及缺水风险评估"(25GSLK078)
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