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山东省补充耕地指标交易特征及影响因素研究OA

Study on Characteristics of of Indicator Trading and Influencing Factors of Supplementary Cultivated Land in Shandong Province

中文摘要英文摘要

系统分析山东省补充耕地指标交易特征及其背后影响因素,能够为优化土地资源配置、推动省重大项目落地与经济社会高质量发展提供保障.本文基于 2019-2023 年山东省省级补充耕地指标交易数据,综合采用空间分析、社会网络分析法对山东省补充耕地指标交易总体特征及网络结构特征进行分析,并采用跨栏模型识别影响山东省补充耕地指标交易的关键因素.研究表明:①山东省补充耕地指标交易规模先增后减,供给端主要分布在山东省边缘地带,需求端主要集中在山东省中部地区,补充耕地指标交易呈现由边缘向中心集中的趋势.②山东省补充耕地指标交易网络可分为 5 个凝聚子群;东明县及乐陵市是补充耕地指标重要的供给节点,济南市是补充耕地指标重要的需求节点;补充耕地指标供给端网络均质性弱于需求端.③补充耕地指标交易存在两阶段且主导因素存在较为明显的差异.

Systematic analysis of trading characteristics and underlying influencing factors of supplementary cultivated land in Shandong province can provide support for the optimization of land resource allocation,the implementation of major provincial projects,and high quality economic and social development.Based on provincial transaction data of supplementary cultivated land indicators in Shandong province from 2019 to 2023,by using spatial analysis and social network analysis,characteristics and network structure of supplementary farmland index trading in Shandong province have been analyzed.By using a hurdle model,key factors affecting the trading of supplementary farmland indicators in Shandong Province have been i-dentified.It is showed that trading scale of supplementary farmland indicators in Shandong province first increased and then decreased.The supply side is mainly distributed in the peripheral areas of Shandong province,while the demand side is mainly concentrated in the central areas.The trading of supplementary farmland indicators shows a trend of concentration from the periphery to the center.The trading network for supplementary farmland indicators in Shandong province can be divided into five cohesive subgroups.Dongming county and Leling city are important supply nodes for supplementing arable land indicators,while Ji'nan city is an important demand node for supplementing arable land indicators.The homogeneity of the supply side network of supplementary farmland indicators is weaker than that of the demand side.There are two stages in the trading of supplementary farmland indicators,and there are significant differ-ences in the dominant factors.

王润;谢文慧;徐洁;马荣强;杨勇;曹雨晴

山东省国土空间生态修复中心,山东 济南 250014山东省国土空间生态修复中心,山东 济南 250014山东省国土空间生态修复中心,山东 济南 250014山东省国土空间生态修复中心,山东 济南 250014山东省国土空间生态修复中心,山东 济南 250014山东省国土空间生态修复中心,山东 济南 250014

管理科学

补充耕地指标交易跨栏模型山东省

Supplementary cultivated landquota tradinghurdle modelShandong province

《山东国土资源》 2026 (8)

7-14,8

财政预算资金项目,下达部门山东省自然资源厅,项目名称:耕地保护管理决策支持与技术支撑

10.12128/j.issn.1672-6979.2026.08.002

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