山东省耕地需求预测研究OA

From the aspects of population size,per capita grain consumption,urbanization rate and vegeta-ble-growing land,based on multi-source statistical data from 2014 to 2023,by using system dynamics model,ARIMA model and exponential smoothing method,total and structural demand of arable land in Shandong province by 2028 have been predicated.It is indicated that by 2028,total population in Shandong province can decrease to 10 075 ten thousand,with an urbanization rate of 68.95%.Rural per capita grain consumption will be 162 kg,while urban per capita grain consumption will be 118 kg,resulting in an esti-mated total grain demand of approximately 56.933 billion kg.In order to meet this demand,an additional 3.80 billion kg of grain production will be required,along with a vegetable-growing area of about 606.35 thousand hectares.The grain-cultivated land demand will reach 570.607×103 hm2.On the basis of self-sufficiency in grain and vegetable production in Shandong province,It can provide agricultural product sup-ply for hundreds of millions of people outside.This research will provide some references for coordinated land planning,arable land conservation and food security in Shandong province.