2025年中国龙卷活动及灾情特征OA
Tornado Activities and Disaster Characteristics in China in 2025
基于多源信息融合方法,系统分析了2025年中国龙卷活动及灾情特征.主要结论如下:与2024年相比,2025年中国龙卷呈现"频次增多、强度减弱"的特征,全年共记录117个陆龙卷和48个水龙卷,最强等级为EF2;2025年龙卷时空分布高度集中,约84%发生在6-9月,约92%出现在白天,空间上主要分布于东北、华东和华南地区,时空分布格局同时受气候背景及观测能力、人口密度等影响.通过综合观测分析识别出数个具有时空关联的龙卷家族个例,这些个例在雷达探测资料中均未显示出经典深厚超级单体的主要特征.近年来,通过灾情识别龙卷方法中增加了卫星遥感辅助手段,即通过地表典型痕迹判定龙卷路径,但其实际效果可能受痕迹清晰度、卫星重访周期及云层覆盖等因素制约;地面灾情调查虽已形成较为规范的作业流程,但受限于人力与响应时效,覆盖范围仍不充分.因此,目前的龙卷数据库虽已覆盖了大部分龙卷事件,但仍不可避免地存在对弱龙卷的遗漏,数据的完整性仍存在不足.未来需进一步完善监测网络及龙卷信息收集机制,以完善龙卷数据库.
Based on a multi-source information fusion methodology,this study systematically analyzes China's tornado activities and disaster characteristics in 2025.The main conclusions are as follows:Tornado activities in 2025 exhibited an annual characteristic of"increased frequency but reduced intensity"relative to that in 2024,with a total of 117 land-based tornadoes and 48 waterspouts that occurred entirely over water,and the maximum intensity rated at EF2.The spatiotemporal distribution of tornadoes in China in 2025 was highly concentrated,with approximately 84%of them occurring from June to September and about 92%during daytime.Geographically,tornadoes were primarily distributed in the Northeast,East,and South China.This distribution pattern was influenced by both climatic background and factors such as observational capabilities and population density.Moreover,comprehensive observational analysis identified several spatiotemporally correlated"tornado family"cases,none of which exhibited dominant characteristics of classic,deep supercells in radar detection.In recent years,satellite remote sensing has been incorporated as an auxiliary method for identifying tornadoes through disaster assessment,which determines tornado paths by analyzing typical surface traces.However,its practical effectiveness may be constrained by factors such as the clarity of these traces,satellite revisit cycles,and cloud cover.Although ground-based disaster surveys have developed relatively standardized operational procedures,their coverage remains insufficient due to limitations in manpower and response timeliness.Consequently,while the current tornado database covers the majority of tornado events,it inevitably still misses some weak tornadoes,resulting in deficiencies in data completeness.Future efforts should focus on further improving monitoring networks and tornado information collection mechanisms to develop a more comprehensive tornado database.
蔡康龙;徐纵横;李彩玲;白兰强;方翀;李兆明;黄舒婷;张泽宇;张礼宝;唐凯
佛山市龙卷风研究中心,中国气象局龙卷风重点开放实验室,粤港澳大湾区气象研究院,佛山 528000上海市闵行区七宝第二中学,上海 201107佛山市龙卷风研究中心,中国气象局龙卷风重点开放实验室,粤港澳大湾区气象研究院,佛山 528000佛山市龙卷风研究中心,中国气象局龙卷风重点开放实验室,粤港澳大湾区气象研究院,佛山 528000国家气象中心,北京 100081佛山市龙卷风研究中心,中国气象局龙卷风重点开放实验室,粤港澳大湾区气象研究院,佛山 528000佛山市龙卷风研究中心,中国气象局龙卷风重点开放实验室,粤港澳大湾区气象研究院,佛山 528000佛山市龙卷风研究中心,中国气象局龙卷风重点开放实验室,粤港澳大湾区气象研究院,佛山 528000黑龙江省气象台,哈尔滨 150030黑龙江省气象台,哈尔滨 150030
天文与地球科学
龙卷多源信息灾情调查雷达卫星
tornadomulti-source informationdisaster surveyradarsatellite
《气象科技进展》 2026 (3)
2-15,14
国家自然科学基金项目(52578621)粤港澳大湾区气象科技协同攻关项目(GHMA2024Z03,GHMA2025Y05)广东省气象局科学技术研究项目(GRMC2023M41)广东省气象局软科学项目(M202512)广东省气象局科技创新团队(GRMCTD202601-ZD08)
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