人为因素下灌溉水有效利用系数驱动机制OA

Many factors influence the effective utilization coefficient of irrigation water in farmland,among which human-induced factors have a significant impact.Data from the Ningxia artesian irrigation area from 2015 to 2019 were collected,and an STIRPAT model was constructed to dynamically evaluate the effects of different human factors on each artesian irrigation district.The results show that the proportion of water-saving irrigation area,channel lining rate,proportion of impermeable canal systems,and investment in water-saving irrigation have positive effects,while the actual irrigated area and the proportion of rice have a restraining effect.Principal component analysis results indicate that the state of water-saving irrigation constitutes the first principal component,while local management and operational conditions and planting structure constitute the second principal component.Regression analysis shows that the proportion of water-saving irrigation area,channel lining rate,and investment in water-saving irrigation are the most influential human factors across irrigation districts.The grey prediction model results indicate that by 2026,the effective utilization coefficient of irrigation water in farmland is expected to fail to reach the planned target value of 0.6,necessitating regulation.According to the regression equation,it is necessary to increase the the average proportion of water-saving irrigation area in the Ningxia artesian irrigation area by 5.01%,increase water-saving irrigation investment by 1.6719 billion yuan,and reduce the average proportion of rice by 14.43%.