径流随机性的物理机制分析OA

Based on the fractal topology structure of digital watersheds,the fractal network spectral gap theory and heterogeneous mean first pass time(MFPT)scaling law were introduced to analyze the convergence characteristics and evolution mechanism of non-stationary runoff stochastic processes.A dynamic transition evolution model of runoff state was constructed by integrating fuzzy Markov chain and non-stationary hidden Markov polynomial regression,and a complete parameter estimation and training verification method was established.On this basis,from the dual perspectives of information geometry and asymptotic analysis,the physical consistency and statistical superiority of the variational stability principle(VSP)over the MSE criterion were rigorously proven.A complete mechanism chain was constructed from the fractal structure of the watershed,nonlinear stochastic processes to the quantification of forecast uncertainty,forming a fractal stochastic unified theoretical system for runoff forecasting.The paradigm shift of runoff forecasting from black box fitting to white box mechanism analysis was achieved,providing a mathematical theoretical basis and methodological support for the adaptive regulation of watershed water resources systems under the background of climate change.