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基于MaxEnt模型的四川省一季稻种植适宜性区划OA

Suitability zoning of single cropping rice planting in Sichuan Province based on maximum entropy(MaxEnt)model

中文摘要英文摘要

为四川省水稻产业发展布局及结构调整提供依据,基于四川省一季稻(Oryza sativa L.)生产地理信息和相关环境变量,应用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)模拟一季稻生产适宜性分布,识别影响其生产的主要生态因子,并采用ROC曲线对模型精度进行检验.结果表明,模型评价精度AUC为0.931,模拟准确性较高,结果可靠.影响四川省一季稻生产的主导气象因子包括6月最低气温、9月平均气温、年平均气温、9月降水量、年降水量、7月降水量及年日照时数;主导地形因子为海拔与坡度.四川省一季稻生产主要分布在四川盆地及攀西地区,边缘适宜区、适宜区和最适宜区面积分别为90 268.84、42 507.84、2.14 km2,最适宜区及适宜区主要分布于四川盆地西部、东南部、东北部部分区域以及攀西地区的金沙江和安宁河流域;不适宜区面积为354 021.06 km2,主要分布于川西北高原的甘孜藏族自治州、阿坝藏族羌族自治州以及川西南山地和盆周山区的部分区域;一季稻生产适宜性分区结果与单产分布情况吻合.

To provide a basis for the development layout and structural adjustment of the rice industry in Sichuan Province,the suitabil-ity distribution of single cropping rice(Oryza sativa L.)production was simulated using the maximum entropy model(MaxEnt)based on geographic information and relevant environmental variables of single cropping rice production in Sichuan Province,the main eco-logical factors affecting its production were identified,and the model accuracy with ROC curves was verified.The results showed that the model evaluation accuracy AUC was 0.931,indicating high simulation accuracy and reliable results.The dominant meteorological factors affecting single cropping rice production in Sichuan Province included minimum temperature in June,average temperature in September,annual average temperature,precipitation in September,annual precipitation,precipitation in July,and annual sunshine hours,and the dominant topographic factors were altitude and slope.Single cropping rice production in Sichuan Province was mainly distributed in the Sichuan Basin and Panxi region.The areas of marginally suitable,suitable,and most suitable regions were 90 268.84 km2,42 507.84 km2,and 2.14 km2,respectively.The most suitable and suitable regions were mainly located in the west-ern,southeastern,and northeastern parts of the Sichuan Basin,as well as the Jinsha River and Anning River Basins in the Panxi re-gion.The unsuitable region covered 354 021.06 km2,primarily distributed in the Garzê Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture and Aba Tibet-an and Qiang Autonomous Prefecture on the Northwest Sichuan Plateau,as well as parts of the Southwest Sichuan Mountainous Areas and the mountainous areas surrounding the basin.The zoning results of single cropping rice production suitability were consistent with the distribution of per-unit yield.

邹雨伽;蒲长林;张玉芳

四川省农业气象中心,成都 610072||丘区农业绿色高效节水技术与装备四川省重点实验室,成都 610066四川省气候中心,成都 610072四川省农业气象中心,成都 610072||丘区农业绿色高效节水技术与装备四川省重点实验室,成都 610066||北京师范大学地理科学学部,北京 100875

农业科技

一季稻(Oryza sativa L.)MaxEnt模型适宜种植区主导生态因子四川省

single cropping rice(Oryza sativa L.)maximum entropy(MaxEnt)modelsuitable planting areakey ecological fac-torsSichuan Province

《湖北农业科学》 2026 (6)

44-51,8

四川省水稻复合灾害动态监测及评估技术研究项目(SCQXKJYJXZD202408)四川省气象局重点创新团队项目(SCQXZD-CXTD202403)长江流域粮油主产区主要作物气象灾害预警及防控关键技术研发与应用项目(2024YFD2301305)四川省科普培训项目《气象防灾减灾宣传科普行》(2025JDKP0028)

10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2026.06.008

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