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石化产品价格影响因素可解释性分析OACHSSCD

Influencing factors and explaining analysis for petrochemical product prices

中文摘要英文摘要

针对石化产品价格影响因素分析中存在的数据维度复杂、动态关联性强、传统机器学习模型解释性不足等痛点,提出融合社会网络分析(SNA)、相对强弱指数(RSI)和动态时间规整(DTW)的可解释性分析框架.通过构建化工品价格关联网络,识别关键影响因子层级结构;利用相对强弱指数实现多量纲数据标准化与趋势特征提取,结合动态时间规整算法量化时序动态关联度,最终通过层次分析法(AHP)建立权重可解释的决策模型.相较传统黑盒模型,本方法在保持时序特征捕捉能力的同时,可直观呈现进出口价格、产业链传导、替代品竞争等核心机制的作用路径,为大数据背景下石化行业价格波动归因提供了兼具精度与可解释性的解决方案.研究成果已形成可复用的智能分析模板,对能源化工领域的大数据价值挖掘具有示范意义,为石化产品价格分析提供了新的视角和思路.

To address such key challenges in analyzing influencing factors of petrochemical product prices as the high dimensionality and complexity of data,strong dynamic interdependencies,and the limited interpretability of traditional machine learning models,the paper proposes an explainable analytical framework integrating Social Network Analysis(SNA),the Relative Strength Index(RSI),and Dynamic Time Warping(DTW).It identifies the hierarchical structure of key influencing factors by constructing a correlation network of chemical product prices,obtains standardize multi-dimensional data and extract trend features using The RSI,sorts out algorithm quantifies dynamic temporal correlations combining the DTW,and finally builds an interpretable decision-making model with explicit weights by the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP).Compared with conventional black-box models,it not only preserves the capacity to capture temporal characteristics but also visually reveals the pathways through such core mechanisms as import/export prices,industrial chain transmission,and substitute product competition to offer a solution for price fluctuation attribution in the petrochemical industry under big data contexts,balancing analytical accuracy with interpretability.The research outcomes have been formalized into a reusable intelligent analysis template,serving as a demonstration of the value of big data mining in the energy and chemical sectors and providing new perspectives and methodologies for the analysis of petrochemical product prices.

张玉琳;刘洋;张芷筠

中国石化工程建设有限公司中国石化工程建设有限公司中国石化工程建设有限公司

管理科学

石化产品价格社会网络分析相对强弱指数动态时间规整价格分析层次分析法可解释性

petrochemical product pricessocial network analysisrelative strength indexdynamic time warpingprice analysisanalytic hierarchy processinterpretability

《国际石油经济》 2026 (7)

78-89,12

10.3969/j.issn.1004-7298.2026.07.009

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