黄河流域新质生产力发展时空演变、区域差异及障碍因子研究OA

As a region of major national strategic importance,the coordinated development of new quality productive forces in the Yellow River Basin is vital to implement national strate-gies for ecological security and high-quality economic development.Based on panel data of eight provinces(autonomous regions)in the Yellow River Basin from 2012 to 2023,this study considers the basin's ecological constraints and industrial endowment characteristics to con-struct a comprehensive evaluation system of new quality productive forces with 30 specific indi-cators.Using the entropy method,kernel density estimation,Moran's I,Dagum Gini coefficient and its decomposition,and obstacle degree model,this paper systematically measures the devel-opment level of new quality productive forces and identifies its temporal dynamic evolution,spa-tial agglomeration pattern,sources of regional disparities,and core restrictive barriers.The re-sults show that:①In terms of temporal evolution,driven by innovation-driven development,digi-tal economy integration,and high-quality development policies,the overall level of new quality productive forces in the Yellow River Basin presents an upward trend.Influenced by natural en-dowments,industrial foundations,and development conditions,downstream regions maintain sig-nificantly higher development levels than the middle and upper reaches,showing prominent re-gional imbalance.②Spatially,new quality productive forces exhibit a significant positive ag-glomeration effect.Provinces with similar development levels cluster geographically;downstream areas form"high-high"agglomeration zones and upper reaches form"low-low"agglomeration zones.Local spatial heterogeneity exists.Although interconnected,provinces face obvious coor-dination barriers and unsmooth factor transmission.③The regional gaps of new quality produc-tive forces follow a U-shaped trend.After short-term convergence,differentiated regional growth widens disparities again.Super-variation density analysis proves inter-regional disparity domi-nates spatial differentiation,and the gap between upper and lower reaches is most significant.④Lagging green energy transition and insufficient innovation transformation efficiency are core constraints.Imperfect inter-provincial innovation transformation systems and inadequate policy coordination cause systemic blockages.Accordingly,three suggestions are proposed:first,adopt differentiated development strategies tailored to upper,middle and lower reaches to narrow re-gional gaps;second,improve basin-wide coordination mechanisms and build cross-regional in-novation networks to promote mobility of new-type factors;third,expand green factor inputs to upgrade industrial structure,leverage digital empowerment to remove core constraints and ad-vance coordinated development of new quality productive forces in the Yellow River Basin.