Enhanced InVEST modeling reveals divergent trajectories of carbon storage in the eastern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau during 1990-2100OA
As a critical ecological barrier and carbon reservoir on the eastern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau,the Qilian Mountains(QLMs)play a vital role in maintaining regional ecological security.This study employed an enhanced Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs(InVEST)model with dynamic interannual carbon density parameterization to evaluate carbon storage(CS)variations in the QLMs during the historical period of 1990-2020 and future period of 2030-2100 under climate scenarios(SSP126,SSP245,and SSP585,where SSP is the Shared Socio-economic Pathway).By integrating GeoDetector analysis,random forest modeling,and scenario simulations,we further assessed climate-human interactions and their impacts on CS.The QLMs had a multi-year average CS of 1.49×10^(9)t during 1990-2020,with higher values in the southeast and lower values in the northwest.The spatial heterogeneity of CS was primarily driven by warming-wetting climatic gradients.Multi-scenario projections revealed divergent trajectories:under the SSP126 scenario,ecological restoration measures(e.g.,mountain closure and afforestation)increased CS,whereas CS under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios exhibited inverted U-shaped patterns.Notably,SSP585 resulted in 8.00×10^(7)t losses due to extensive conversions from grassland to urban area during 2050-2100.Grassland and cropland CS,together with precipitation,emerged as the key determinants of regional CS dynamics,with a synergistic interaction between precipitation and temperature.This study introduced a century-scale,multi-scenario framework that captures temporal interactions and dynamically parameterizes carbon density coefficients for era-specific accuracy.The findings suggest optimizing vegetation coverage,managing urban expansion,and implementing climate adaptation strategies to enhance the total CS of this ecologically sensitive region.
HUANG Kepan;XU Haojie;LIU Zhifei;WANG Dawei
State Key Laboratory of Herbage Improvement and Grassland Agro-ecosystems/Key Laboratory of Grassland Livestock Industry Innovation,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs/Engineering Research Center of Grassland Industry,Ministry of Education/College of Pastoral Agriculture Science and Technology,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730020,ChinaState Key Laboratory of Herbage Improvement and Grassland Agro-ecosystems/Key Laboratory of Grassland Livestock Industry Innovation,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs/Engineering Research Center of Grassland Industry,Ministry of Education/College of Pastoral Agriculture Science and Technology,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730020,China Center for Remote Sensing of Ecological Environments in Cold and Arid Regions,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,ChinaState Key Laboratory of Herbage Improvement and Grassland Agro-ecosystems/Key Laboratory of Grassland Livestock Industry Innovation,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs/Engineering Research Center of Grassland Industry,Ministry of Education/College of Pastoral Agriculture Science and Technology,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730020,ChinaState Key Laboratory of Herbage Improvement and Grassland Agro-ecosystems/Key Laboratory of Grassland Livestock Industry Innovation,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs/Engineering Research Center of Grassland Industry,Ministry of Education/College of Pastoral Agriculture Science and Technology,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730020,China
资源环境
carbon storage(CS)land use and land cover(LULC)GeoDetector analysisscenario simulationsclimate changeQilian Mountains
《Journal of Arid Land》 2026 (8)
P.1283-1303,21
funded by the Open Fund of the Field Scientific Observation and Research Station of the Subalpine Ecosystem in the Central Qilian Mountains(QLSKFJJ-2024-D0006)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(lzujbky-2022-27)the Natural Science Foundation of Gansu Province(23JRRA1048).
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