1990-2021年中国食管癌疾病负担趋势分析及2022-2050年数据预测OA

Objective To analyze esophageal cancer burden trends in China from 1990 to 2021,further project the burden from 2022 to 2050.Methods The time trends of standardized incidence,standardized mortality,and standardized disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)rate of esophageal cancer in China from 1990 to 2021 using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 were analyzed using the estimated annual percentage change(EAPC).The disease burden of esophageal cancer in China from 2022 to 2050 was predicted using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model combined with sensitivity analysis and model calibration.Results In China,the ASIR of esophageal cancer increased from 17.637 per 105 in 1990 to 22.548 per 105 in 2021(EAPC=0.55,95%CI:0.38-0.71).The ASMR rose from 17.920 per 105 in 1990 to 20.836 per 105 in 2021(EAPC=0.21,95%CI:0.02-0.39).The age-standardized DALYs decreased from 497.437 per 105 in 1990 to 484.884 per 105 in 2021(EAPC=-0.39,95%CI:from-0.59 to-0.2).Among individuals aged 45 years and above,the proportion of esophageal cancer cases increased from 93.32%in 1990 to 97.56%in 2021,and the proportion of deaths in this age group rose from 90.44%in 1990 to 98.22%in 2021.For individuals aged 40 years and above,the proportion of DALYs attributed to esophageal cancer increased from 95.29%in 1990 to 98.29%in 2021.Among people aged 20 years and above,the incidence rate of esophageal cancer showed a downward trend in all age groups.In particular,the 35-39 year age group exhibited the most significant decline(EAPC=-3.74,95%CI:from-4.22 to-3.25).Among individuals aged 20 years and above,the 70+year age group had the smallest decrease in ASMR and age-standardized DALYs.By 2050,the standardized prevalence,standardized incidence,standardized mortality,and standardized DALY rate of esophageal cancer in China were predicted to decre-ase to 25.1/105,6.4/105,14.2/105,and 12.0/105,respectively.Conclusion Fr-om 1990 to 2021,the ASIR and ASMR of esophageal cancer in China showed an upward trend,whereas the age-standardized DALY rate exhibited a slow downward trend.Although the incidence of esophageal cancer showed a downward trend across all the age groups from 20 years and above,the overall standardized rate exhibited an upward trend due to factors such as population aging.By 2050,the burden of esophageal cancer in China,including prevalence,incidence,mortality,and DALYs,will decline.The population aged 45 years and above is the core group affected by esophageal cancer and should be prioritized for prevention and control.