台风残余环流引发的强降雨灾害分析及应对研究OA

Typhoons,as highly destructive weather systems,exhibit different disaster-causing characteristics at different stages of their life cycle.However,after a typhoon significantly weakens and is no longer officially tracked,its residual circulation(also referred to as a remnant vortex)could remain quasi-stationary for a considerable time or reintensify.Through interactions with weather systems such as mid-latitude westerly troughs,southerly flows along the edge of the subtropical high,and low-level jets,it can create favorable conditions for precipitation.Such extreme precipitation has caused numerous severe flood disasters worldwide,posing a new challenge for meteorological forecasting and disaster management.Through an analysis of representative domestic and international cases,this paper systematically reveals the severity of disasters induced by residual circulation after the typhoon numbering is discontinued,as well as the underlying physical mechanisms.It also evaluates the deficiencies in existing forecasting and response systems and proposes corresponding countermeasures.The results show that current forecasting capability for both residual circulation and the associated precipitation remains insufficient.Furthermore,the forecasting and early warning systems,along with relevant operational standards,remain inadequate.It is recommended to establish a"24～48 hour key monitoring period after typhoon numbering termination",formulate operational guidelines for residual circulation forecasting,deeply integrate multi-source data including Fengyun satellite cloud imagery,large-scale environmental fields,and ground-based automatic weather stations,improve numerical models,strengthen the application of ensemble forecasting,and enhance the capability to predict the movement trends of residual circulations.Meanwhile,it is necessary to continuously improve the flood and drought disaster prevention and mitigation system,and enhance public awareness and social resilience,so as to improve disaster response capability throughout the life cycle of typhoons.